Hot Source….In his premature Mahama succession list
Mussa Dankwa, continues to demonstrate the unscientific nature of his Global InfoAnalytics polls, as their outcomes appear to depend mainly on his discretion regarding who is included and who is excluded, heavily dependent on his biases and “judgment call”.
The latest controversy reinforces concerns that he is attempting to influence potential National Democratic Congress (NDC) delegates with unverified figures, seemingly manipulating them to select a preferred candidate long before the ruling party begins its nomination process for the presidential primaries.
Amid growing debate over succession within the ruling NDC, primarily influenced by his polls, Mr Dankwa, over the weekend, shocked listeners of Citi FM’s The Big Issue on Saturday, 4 October, when he claimed that Vice-President Prof Jane Opoku-Agyemang was omitted from his latest poll because she was “sick” and abroad for medical treatment.
Selorm Adonoo, the host of the programme, and Hamza Suhuyini, a member of the NDC Communications Team, questioned Mr Dankwa about the Vice-President’s absence, given that she is a key figure in any succession plan based on historical precedent, with late President John Evans Atta Mills taking over from JJ Rawlings and President Mahama succeeding President Mills. Mussa insisted that she was excluded due to illness and her absence from the country.
However, The Herald’s investigations suggest that this claim is inaccurate. The Vice-President fell ill at work on March 28, 2025, and was flown to the United Kingdom for treatment on May 29, 2025. She returned to Ghana on 22 May, nearly two months before the poll was conducted.
Mr Dankwa claims that Global InfoAnalytics conducts surveys every three months, with the latest results published on the organisation’s social media platforms on 29 September 2025. This means Prof. Opoku-Agyemang had already returned to Ghana well before the poll, yet she was still omitted on grounds of illness and absence.
Critics continue to discredit the polls, which primarily draw on rumours and speculation surrounding the presidential ambitions of some of President Mahama’s appointees. The timing of the survey has also been questioned, given that the NDC’s presidential primaries are still about two years away, following the party’s ward, constituency, regional, and national executive elections.
In essence, the NDC currently has no delegates to be reached compared to the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP), whose delegate list, he said, had been provided with their phone numbers to enable him to reach them. Yet Mr Dankwa appears to disregard this key point, conducting polls on the NDC, which has only recently formed government, and within five months, he has already begun producing such surveys.
Another factor affecting the credibility of the poll is that most individuals listed as potential flagbearers have yet to fulfil their mandates as part of the social contract signed with Ghanaians per the emphatic victory at the December 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections.
Nevertheless, Mr Dankwa claimed that the new nationwide “Quarterly Monthly Tracking Poll” conducted by Global InfoAnalytics places Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu ahead in the race to succeed President Mahama as leader of the NDC.
According to him, the survey interviewed 7,500 Ghanaians nationwide. It shows Haruna Iddrisu leading with 30%, followed by NDC National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia at 24%. Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson has 18%, Chief of Staff Julius Debrah 10%, Foreign Affairs Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa 8%, Agriculture Minister Eric Opoku 2%, Joshua Alabi 2%, Armah Kofi Buah 2%, Kwame Awuah-Darko 2%, Spio-Garbrah 1%, and Okoe Vanderpuije 0%.
In a three-horse race without Dr Forson, the poll places Iddrisu at 45%, Asiedu Nketia at 37%, and Debrah at 18%. Among NDC voters, Iddrisu leads with 47%, Asiedu Nketia 39%, and Debrah 14%. In swing regions, Iddrisu again leads with 48%, followed by Asiedu Nketia at 37% and Debrah at 15%.
Mr Dankwa also presented a scenario excluding Iddrisu, which results in a near tie between Asiedu Nketia and Dr Forson: 40% for Asiedu Nketia, 38% for Forson, and 22% for Debrah. Among NDC voters, the race is similarly close, with Asiedu Nketia at 42%, Forson at 41%, and Debrah at 17%. In swing regions, Forson leads with 47%, followed by Asiedu Nketia at 38% and Debrah at 15%.
Explaining his decision to explain the Vice-President, Mr Dankwa, on The Big Issues, said: “It was our decision… She was in the first survey we did in April, then she fell ill. When she came back, she tried to resume government duties. As pollsters, sometimes you make judgment calls. We also considered her age in 2028 and current dynamics; 64% of the 78% we surveyed want younger candidates. That skews against her age bracket. On our own, we decided to take her out and see how the race changes. For us, this gives insight into how her votes disperse. It may seem useless to others, but for us, it’s a goldmine.”
He added that reintroducing her into future polls could alter the race dynamics, though he insisted that “this country is looking forward”.
Asked why Goosie Tanoh was excluded, Mr Dankwa said he was initially included, but “a call came” for his removal, without disclosing the source.
Responding on the absence of the Vice-President, Hamza Suhuyini, said the NDC’s priority should be fulfilling its promises to Ghanaians rather than engaging in premature internal rivalries.
Suhuyini argued that Mussa’s reasons for excluding the Vice-President from the poll were unconvincing, as he aimed to gauge public opinion on a female candidate and a female president to see if the country is prepared for a female leader.
It is “an important part of the research, which he shouldn’t have taken for granted. Whether she was sick or not, that is a very important part we need to understand”, Suhuyini stressed.
However, the NDC, Hamza insisted must remain committed to governance and delivery, amid the growing debate over succession following the Global InfoAnalytics poll that places Haruna Iddrisu as the frontrunner to succeed President Mahama.
“For us in the NDC, I think that the objective now is to stay true to the social contract that we signed with the good people of this country, based on which they gave us an overwhelming mandate on 7th December 2024,” he said, adding “That should be the focus of any operative of the NDC, and of course His Excellency John Dramani Mahama.”
He insisted that President Mahama’s performance in his current term would be decisive for both his legacy and the party’s long-term political fortunes.
“His performance will go a long way to impact on our political future,” Suhuyini stated.
He said findings suggest that no single candidate currently enjoys more than a third of support among voters, indicating a competitive race that remains wide open.
The latest results reflect noticeable shifts compared to Global Info Analytics’ July 2025 poll. Haruna Iddrisu gained three percentage points, rising from 27% to 30%, while Asiedu Nketiah dipped from 26% to 24%.
Dr. Ato Forson experienced the sharpest decline, falling from 22% to 18%. Julius Debrah dropped marginally from 11% to 10%, while Ablakwa remained unchanged.
Notably, new entrants into the race collectively gained 4%, primarily drawing support away from Dr Forson.
Mussa said his survey also analyzed support bases across political affiliations and among NDC supporters. Haruna Iddrisu leads with 33%, Asiedu Nketiah follows with 25%, and Ato Forson is third with 20%. Julius Debrah and Okudzeto Ablakwa each secured 7%.
Among NPP supporters, Asiedu Nketiah and Haruna Iddrisu split support evenly at 25% each, while Dr Forson attracted 18% and Julius Debrah 13%. However, among floating voters, Haruna Iddrisu leads with 27%, Asiedu Nketiah is close behind at 24%, while Dr Ato Forson and Julius Debrah each secured 16%.
The Mussa’s data shows Haruna Iddrisu making the most significant gains among NDC voters, rising from 30% in July to 33% in September. Asiedu Nketiah also gained slightly, moving from 24% to 25%. Conversely, Dr Forson dropped from 22% to 20%, while Julius Debrah suffered the steepest loss, sliding from 11% to 7%.
On regional and ethnic dynamics, Global Info Analytics also highlighted the demographic undercurrents shaping the contest, stating that Haruna Iddrisu remains the only contender from the five northern regions, while candidates from the Akan bloc, Ga-Dangme, and Volta-Oti bloc are splitting votes in the south.
Musaa has since released two videos on social media explaining his latest poll. According to analysts, the NDC’s tradition of balancing leadership across regional and ethnic groups could influence the eventual outcome of the primaries.
Presenting the findings, Mussa Dankwah, said that while the NDC primaries remain years away, early indicators suggest how ordinary voters perceive potential aspirants.
“What we have done is to assess their chances from the perspective of ordinary Ghanaians and not delegates. We expect the list of contenders to narrow down over time, and when that happens, support will consolidate around fewer candidates,” Mr Dankwah said.
He added that Asiedu Nketia’s ongoing ‘Thank You Tour’ could influence his numbers, though any impact would only be reflected in future polls. The survey focused on the four personalities who scored 10% or more in earlier tracking polls: Asiedu Nketia, Julius Debrah, Haruna Iddrisu, and Ato Forson.
He explained that these four personalities were the ones who scored 10 per cent in their tracking polls, hence the focus of the survey on them.
Speaking on another platform, the Key Points on TV3 Saturday, October 5, he said, “You and I have an opinion, and that opinion in the NDC, these guys are potential candidates. What we have done is to pick the four names that score 10 per cent in our tracking polls, Asiedu Nketia, Julius Debrah, Haruna Iddrisu and Ato Forson.”
The latest findings indicate no single candidate currently enjoys more than a third of voter support, suggesting a competitive and wide-open race. Compared with Global InfoAnalytics’ July 2025 poll, Iddrisu gained three points, rising from 27% to 30%, while Asiedu Nketia dropped from 26% to 24%. Dr Forson recorded the sharpest decline, from 22% to 18%, and Debrah fell slightly from 11% to 10%,
Among NDC supporters, Iddrisu leads with 33%, followed by Asiedu Nketia at 25%, Dr Forson at 20%, and both Debrah and Ablakwa at 7% each. Among NPP supporters, Asiedu Nketia and Iddrisu each received 25%, Dr Forson 18%, and Debrah 13%. Among floating voters, Iddrisu leads with 27%, Asiedu Nketia follows with 24%, Dr Forson with 16%, and Debrah with 16%.
Regional analysis highlights that Iddrisu is the only contender from the five northern regions, while candidates from the Akan, Ga-Dangme, and Volta-Oti blocs are splitting southern votes.
Mr Dankwa has released two videos on social media defending his methodology. Analysts note that the NDC’s tradition of balancing leadership across regional and ethnic lines could significantly shape the eventual outcome of its primaries.
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