World Bank Upgrades Nigeria’s 2025 Growth Outlook to 4.2%

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Nume Ekeghe

The World Bank has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 4.2 per cent, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase from its previous projection.

The outlook upgrade was buoyed by improved macroeconomic stability, stronger service-sector performance, and the impact of recent structural reforms.

In the latest Africa’s Pulse report released yesterday, the Washington-based institution projected that Nigeria’s economic growth would rise from 4.1 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025, and further strengthen to 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2027, driven by higher activity in ICT, finance, and real estate.

“Economic growth in Nigeria has been upgraded by 0.6 percentage point per year during 2024– 27, mainly due to the rebasing effect.

“Activity is expected to increase slightly, from 4.1 percent in 2024 to 4.2 percent in 2025, and firm to 4.4 percent in 2026–27. The projected higher growth of the Nigerian economy is likely to be driven by stronger performance in services—especially ICT, finance, and real estate,” it added.

The Bank attributed the more optimistic outlook to ongoing economic reforms introduced under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, particularly those aimed at stabilising the foreign exchange market.

“As a result of the reforms implemented by President Tinubu, the naira’s volatility has declined, and the external position has improved as reflected by increased reserves and a large positive current account surplus.

“A more competitive naira is expected to continue supporting some export diversification and compressed imports. Price pressures are expected to remain elevated, necessitating sustained monetary policy efforts to re-anchor inflation expectations.

“The disinflation path remains vulnerable to risks, including exchange rate pressures, potential supply shocks, and volatility in global markets, which could slow progress toward price stability,” it added.

The Bank also revised its growth outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) upward to 3.8 per cent in 2025, from 3.5 per cent in 2024, representing a 0.3 percentage point increase from its April 2025 forecast.

“The revision reflects growth upgrades in large economies like Nigeria (0.6 percentage point), Ethiopia (0.7 percentage point), and Côte d’Ivoire (0.5 percentage point),” it noted.

The improved regional projection, according to the Bank, was supported by easing inflationary pressures and a modest recovery in investment, even as global headwinds persist. It also observed that the number of African countries experiencing double-digit inflation has fallen from 23 in October 2022 to 10 by July 2025, signalling progress in stabilising prices.

Despite the positive growth narrative, the World Bank warned that economic expansion across the region remains insufficient to absorb Africa’s rapidly growing labour force.

The Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa, Andrew Dabalen, cautioned that the continent faces an urgent jobs crisis, stating: “Over the next quarter century, Sub-Saharan Africa’s working-age population will grow by more than 600 million. The challenge will be matching this growing population with better jobs, given that only 24 per cent of new workers today land wage-paying jobs.”

He emphasised that a structural shift toward more medium and large firms was crucial to generate employment at scale and mitigate poverty risks.

The Bank further raised concerns about rising debt vulnerabilities, revealing that external debt service across SSA has more than doubled in the past decade, now standing at 2 per cent of GDP in 2024. It added that the number of countries in or at high risk of debt distress had risen from eight in 2014 to 23 in 2025, underscoring the need for prudent fiscal management.

While acknowledging the progress made in macroeconomic reforms, the Bank warned that geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainty, and waning investor appetite remain significant downside risks to the region’s recovery.

Furthermore, the report urged African governments to focus on policies that stimulate private-sector-led job creation, particularly in agribusiness, mining, tourism, healthcare, and housing.

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FASHOLA AND THE POLITICS OF REWARD

JOSHUA NWACHUKWU argues that obsession with rewarding political loyalty may explain persistent governance failures

Babatunde Fashola, former Governor of Lagos State, delivered a speech at the recent APC Stakeholders Forum, that went beyond the routine rhetoric of political gatherings. He spoke on voter apathy and the sanctity of elections.

Among his many remarks, those two statements stood out for me. These statements though simple on the surface, raise profound questions about the moral and structural foundations of our politics.

In seeking to understand the declining votes for the APC in Lagos, Fashola asked “What is our party’s reward system like? How do we even network with ourselves?” He went further to ask, “If we wanted to undertake a particular programme that involved certain tradesmen or tradeswomen, do we have a register that we can consult to say who are the party members who will be interested in this?”

To show wide acceptance for his comment on reward system, those present gave him a resounding round of applause and K1 De Ultimate, our ambassador for “proper airport security protocol”, even provided a musical endorsement of these sentiments.

To the casual listener, Fashola’s comments might seem innocuous, perhaps even trite from a partisan standpoint; the musings of a loyal party man seeking better organisation. Yet, beneath that simplicity lies a deeper and more unsettling logic that continues to shape governance in Nigeria: the quiet assumption that political affiliation should determine access to government opportunity and resources.

Little wonder in Fashola’s view, party members should have priority when government-funded programmes, such as empowerment schemes for tradesmen and tradeswomen, are rolled out. In effect, the APC membership card becomes more valuable than the Nigerian passport or National Identification Number (NIN).

This, unfortunately, is the political philosophy that has underwritten much of governance in Nigeria, one where public service is filtered through partisan loyalty, and the machinery of the state is treated as an extension of the party. This logic where service and opportunity and benefits are mediated through party loyalty corrodes the very essence of democracy. It suggests that belonging, merit, and public benefit are tethered not to competence or civic identity, but to the machinery of political affiliation.

Why must every minister or political appointee be a member of the ruling party, or have campaigned for it? Is it not enough that the person has the best interest of Nigeria at heart and is dedicated to work for its betterment, notwithstanding political or apolitical affiliation? To be the best of my knowledge the likes of Dr. Okonjo-Iweala, Dr Akinwumi A. Adesina and Prof. Muhammad Ali Pate are not partisan, yet they are deemed to be assets to the country.

It is precisely this partisan mindset that explains why so many elected leaders govern with bias, unable to transcend the narrow interests of their parties to embrace the broader ideals of nationhood and when they try to transcend party lines, they are accused of betraying not Nigeria but their grassroots or failing to reward those that worked hard for their election.

One cannot tell if this attitude springs from widespread unemployment or from a deep sense of entitlement, but it is worrying.

Over the weekend, on X, probably energised by Fashola’s comment, many APC supporters and activists have come out accusing the party leadership particularly in Lagos State of not rewarding party loyalists mostly at the grassroots by giving them appointments or contracts. They jettison the idea of technocrat or competency argument as why they’re not being chosen and insist that APC has qualified party members for any role, only if the party leaders can look within and choose, but the best of brains and best of hearts/intentions cannot all be in APC. We have to really consider what happens when political allegiance becomes more valuable than competence.

Little wonder, when appointments are announced, the first question many grassroots activists ask is not “Who is this person, and what do they bring to the table?” but “Is he/she one of us?” “Did he/she work for the party?” To be fair, this problem is not unique to the APC. PDP, Labour, and other parties are guilty of similar habits.

For many, the elephant in the room is how to “reward” party members who campaigned during elections, often sacrificing time, money, and relationships. They must be motivated to remain engaged, the argument goes. Yet one must ask: should this even be the elephant in the room? Shouldn’t the real question be, what is the better reward: an appointment in public service or better living conditions for all Nigerians?

Would I prefer to receive an appointment that enables me to afford a “I better pass my neighbour” generator, or would I rather live in a country where electricity is stable for everyone? The answer to that question reveals the moral crossroad at which our democracy stands.

Political patronage quietly destroys the fabric of our democracy. This obsession with rewarding loyalty may explain persistent governance failures.

Lurking behind today’s identity politics is not a quest for good governance, but the familiar echo of “Èmi ló kàn,” it is my turn, or my people’s turn. But turn to do what? Not to serve the common good, evidently.

Few weeks ago, Prof Luis Franceschi, the Assistant Secretary General of the Commonwealth, shared some insights he got from Kishore Mahbubani, a brilliant Singaporean diplomat and one of the architects of Singapore’s economic miracle. According to Kishore, Lee Kuan Yew was unforgiving on three pillars that defined Singapore’s success, captured in the formula MPH: M – Meritocracy: the best person for the job, regardless of family name or background. P – Pragmatism: if it works and it is fair, adopt it; don’t get stuck in ideological battles. H – Honesty: even a Deputy Minister went to jail for returning from holiday with a businessman — conflict of interest was not tolerated.

This ethic continues today. In 2023, Singapore’s Minister of Transport, S. Iswaran, was arrested and charged for receiving expensive gifts and concert tickets from a business tycoon. Integrity remains non-negotiable.

We need meritocracy and integrity in Nigeria.

Until our politics learns to distinguish governance from partisanship and the state from the party, Nigeria will continue to wrestle with the moral contradictions of its democracy.

If democracy is to have meaning, citizenship must once again be more valuable than party membership. We must rebuild a political culture where competence is celebrated above connection, and where public office is seen as a sacred trust rather than a reward.

Fashola’s remarks expose a deeper question, who does the government truly serve: the people or the party?

True leadership serves citizens, not registered party members. Nigeria belongs to all of us, not merely to the ruling party’s faithful. We are all co-owners of this republic. Until that truth shapes our politics, good governance will remain elusive.

The sooner we educate ourselves on these principles, the better our collective future will be.

Nwachukwu writes from Lagos

JOSHUA NWACHUKWU argues that obsession with rewarding political loyalty may explain persistent governance failures Babatunde Fashola, former Governor of Lagos State, delivered a speech at the recent APC Stakeholders Forum, that

IN THE EYE OF TRUMP’S STORM

The government should urgently arrest the colossal tragedies that have brought Nigeria to her knees, writes MONDAY PHILIPS EKPE

President Donald Trump of the United States of America, a man not given to conventional international diplomacy, announced last week, toeing the line of Senator Ted Cruz and co., that Nigeria was guilty of genocide against Christians. His administration also promptly tagged Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern (CPC). Trump’s trademark incendiary tweets also didn’t disappoint: “If the Nigerian government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the USA will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing,’ to completely wipe out the Islamic terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.

“I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our cherished Christians! Warning: The Nigerian government better move fast!” Back at home, the Trump government has been shut down for weeks because of the federal lawmakers’ inability to cross party lines to pass the enabling budget but he had the liberty to make declarations that have now significantly triggered and disrupted public discourse in Nigeria.

The official response has, as expected, been that of denial. Other entities have also joined our government to reject the albatross being hung on the neck of this already overburdened country; while some others have hailed the plan of ‘gallant’ Trump to come to the rescue of his beloved brethren. For long, Nigerian political leaders have exploited our fault-lines, notably religion, region and ethnicity, to secure advantages over their rivals. But never in our history has any superpower publicly threatened to directly intervene in the nation’s domestic affairs on any of those counts. All of a sudden, a problem most probably not anticipated has dropped on the laps of the government of President Bola Tinubu and the stressed people of Nigeria at such a difficult time.

We’re clearly unprepared for this period. There are slippery grounds here to worry about. The military hierarchy is being rejigged in the midst of a coup scare that’s unprecedented since the commencement of the current democratic dispensation. The masses now watch helplessly as politicians demonstrate crass opportunism in the form of unconvincing and dubious defections from ‘sinking’ parties to the one that controls the centre and, by implication, every machinery or resource which guarantees access to power and more power, thereby undermining opposition severely. The same disempowered people are aware that they can only hope to survive today’s painful socio-economic realities while facing an uncertain tomorrow.

Most Nigerians are actually staying afloat courtesy of the sheer grit they’re known for. Attempting to grapple with the possibility of a foreign-powered warfare on their soil with all the challenges translates to psychological torture. Now that the Chinese leader, President Xi Jinping, has countered Trump, the picture of the future may have become even foggier. These two elephants mustn’t fight in whatever manner on our fragile soil.

Trust the internet-savvy local population. Tinubu’s own tweet in 2014: “The slaughtering of Christian worshippers is strongly condemnable. It calls to question the competence of (President Goodluck) Jonathan to protect Nigerians” has resurfaced and gone viral as a reminder of yesterday’s missile from a set of political power seekers to a besieged and demonised sitting head of state. Then there was a ‘clueless’ administration to remove by all means. After all, propaganda is always cosy for the person dishing it out. Some commentators have since concluded that the Law of Karma is at work; that, for the treatment he meted out to Jonathan, the combined forces of nature and ill-luck have returned to serve him his own bouquet of troubles in full measure.

But, quite frankly, there’s no time to gloat. Neither is it even sensible to. For, this matter is bigger than Tinubu and his open ambition to clinch another presidential term in 2027. At stake, mainly, are Nigeria’s sovereignty and the reinstatement of the sanctity of human life being constantly and savagely eroded. At least three critical requirements apply here. One, selfless, visionary leadership. Two, the capacity of the statutory institutions to rise above their present underperforming levels and protect lives and property. And, three, the willingness and capability of the citizens to rise above their differences in order to fight a common cause, not to talk of any enemy from within or outside.

Sadly, however, the arguments out there centre mostly around who between Christians and Moslems have suffered more casualties. The complexity of the situation in accentuated by the fact that the key variables which appear conflicting are indeed all true. At no time has the body of Islamic worshippers in Nigeria declared war on their Christian counterparts, thereby making any generalisation or profiling unfair and dangerous. The terrorists and insurgents – spearheaded by Boko Haram – have used their faith as pretext for the bulk of these criminalities. Many of the defenceless people and communities that have been brutalised, traumatised and wiped out have cogent reasons to trace their travails to religion and language. Their cries must, therefore, not be silenced. The calamities that keep befalling the nation have so far been liberalised, having touched Nigerians regardless of their affinities. And more. Ours is truly an unfortunate cocktail of woes.

Genocide, slaughter or massacre? The Convention on Genocide adopted by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in December 1948 defines genocide as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group”. Hair-splitting over the semantics, theatrics and politics of the evils that confront us at this point is self-sabotaging. Must the barbaric treatments experienced by some Nigerians first fit into the moulds of those perpetrated by the Nazis during the Holocaust, Janjaweed in Darfur, Sudan and Tutsis and Hutus against each other in Rwanda to qualify for heinous crimes against humanity? And why should it take a Trump moment to jolt us into action?

President Tinubu has now seen the need to appoint individuals to head our diplomatic missions abroad. He has also declared a state of emergency on our security, whatever that means. In God’s name, let’s get help if our own strength has failed us. Nigerian citizens are tired of meetings and pronouncements that produce little or nothing. The silly debates about the religion that has lost more people must stop. It’s time to halt abruptly ending precious lives like flies.

Dr Ekpe is a member of THISDAY Editorial Board

The government should urgently arrest the colossal tragedies that have brought Nigeria to her knees, writes MONDAY PHILIPS EKPE President Donald Trump of the United States of America, a man not

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