When Defection Tsunami Shifts Kaduna’s Power Dynamics

By Nasir Dambatta

From three House of Representatives members, four serving commissioners, 22 opposition leaders, and over 1,000 women and youth mobilizers who defected between February and October 2025, Kaduna’s political landscape has undergone nothing short of an earthquake.

By every measurable index, the state’s political map is tilting firmly toward Governor Uba Sani. What began as a quiet consolidation of trust has now erupted into a wave of defections that is reshaping the state’s power dynamics — and setting the All Progressives Congress (APC) on a commanding trajectory ahead of the 2027 elections.

In Giwa and Igabi, once considered the PDP’s rural fortress, nearly 300 grassroots leaders and ward executives have crossed over to the ruling APC, citing visible infrastructure projects and renewed access to government programmes. In Southern Kaduna, a politically sensitive region, over 450 defectors, including women coordinators and youth leaders from Jema’a, Kachia, and Kaura, publicly pledged allegiance to Uba Sani’s inclusive leadership.

Kaduna North and Kaduna Central are no less affected. In the metropolitan zones, therefore, the defection of three federal lawmakers and dozens of local councillors from the PDP, PRP, and NNPP has changed the arithmetic of local politics. From Kawo to Barnawa, from Sabon Gari to Zaria City, the movement is visible — one that cuts across ethnicity, faith, and social class.

The most dramatic of these came in May 2025, when over 1,000 women from various opposition parties converted on Kaduna to publicly declare for the APC. The scenes were a reminder that the most persuasive campaign in today’s Kaduna is not money or rhetoric — it’s results.

Each defection is more than a number — it’s a verdict on performance, inclusion, and governance with impact. Governor Uba Sani’s steady, people-focused leadership is the real engine behind these conversions. His policies in infrastructure renewal, youth and women empowerment, housing, and healthcare have blurred partisan lines and restored public confidence in government. The governor’s emphasis on human capital — not patronage — has made governance relatable, credible, and rewardable.

For the APC in Uba Sani’s Kaduna, the dividends are strategic. With decampees swelling its ranks from the grassroots to the National Assembly, the ruling party now commands not just numerical superiority but moral capital — the kind rooted in delivery. Kaduna’s political actors, once polarized, now see alignment with Uba Sani’s leadership as a gateway to relevance in a rapidly transforming state.

But beneath the numbers lies a deeper political undercurrent. Uba Sani’s ability to unite various blocs — from the traditional Northern Kaduna vote bank to the emerging Southern Kaduna youth network — is fast neutralizing old rivalries. His administration’s outreach to Christian and minority groups, coupled with deliberate inclusion of women in decision-making, has softened old suspicions and expanded the party’s demographic appeal.

According to analysts, Kaduna’s ongoing defection wave is a reflection of confidence politics — a situation where citizens and politicians alike respond positively to tangible progress. The governor’s alignment to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, backed by investments in housing, security cooperation, and Small and Medium Enterprises’ empowerment, is gradually turning development into a political movement.

The Uba Sani Back2Back Group, a coalition of political supporters and civic influencers monitoring these trends, recently said the defections are “a clear referendum on performance-based governance.”

“Kaduna people are not deceived by empty slogans anymore. They are aligning with a leader who delivers on his promises. Governor Uba Sani’s style is humble, firm, and inclusive — and that’s why every week we record new decampees,” the group said in a statement.

They noted that the pace of defection has accelerated in the past four months due to the visible completion of key projects like the Kaduna Urban Renewal, Kafanchan Township Roads, and the ongoing Abuja-Kaduna Highway collaboration with the Federal Government.

If this momentum continues, 2027 may not just be another election year in Kaduna; it could mark the consolidation of a new political order — one anchored on performance-driven loyalty. And at the heart of it all stands Uba Sani, the quiet reformer turning governance into his most persuasive campaign strategy.

For the first time in years, Kaduna politics is being driven not by slogans or strongmen, but by delivery, unity, and visible change. And as the defections mount, one message keeps echoing across the state: results speak louder than opposition.

*Dambatta is Senior Special Assistant to the Governor on Print Media

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    Experts Seek to Wean Nigeria Off Cigarette, Say Sweden’s Anti-Smoking Model Should Be Adapted

    •Castro: Nigeria can save significant health costs if smoking prevalence declined

    James Emejo in Abuja

    Public health experts, yesterday urged the federal government to adapt Sweden’s successful anti-smoking model to reduce smoking-related deaths and diseases.

    The stakeholders made the call at an engagement forum in Abuja, where they underscored the need for science-based policies, public education, and multi-sectoral collaboration to achieve effective tobacco harm reduction.

    The forum with the theme, “Can Nigeria Quit Like Sweden?”, aimed to discuss public health issues around smoking cessation and harm reduction which is Sweden’s comprehensive approach that combines smoking cessation and prevention measures with policies that allow people who smoke to choose alternatives instead.

    Director of Quit Like Sweden (QLS), Ms. Suely Castro, said Sweden’s approach focuses on harm reduction by offering safer alternatives to traditional cigarettes rather than pursuing total eradication.

    She said, “We are here to share the Swedish experience, which is about harm reduction in tobacco control.

    “Our focus is on enabling people to access safer alternatives that are affordable and acceptable. Nigeria is diverse, so while the Swedish model cannot be copied wholesale, its principles can be adapted to fit Nigeria’s needs.”

    Castro stressed that every country’s success in tobacco control depended on tailoring strategies to local realities.

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    Castro said, “We don’t promote products; we promote help. Our concern is for the people who struggle with smoking, their families, and their communities. Harm reduction gives them a fighting chance.”

    She further observed that Nigeria could save significant health costs if smoking prevalence declined.

    She said, “We hope Nigeria will one day reach the low smoking rates Sweden enjoys. Fewer smoking-related illnesses would mean more national resources for health, education, and development.”

    On government engagement, Castro said dialogue with policymakers was essential.

    According to her, “Government plays a key role, Policymakers must be willing to listen and engage constructively because decisions made at that level affect millions.”

    In his remarks, Pharmacist-Epidemiologist and Director of Research at Global Focus, University of Ibadan, Dr. Yusuff Adebayo Adebisi, said evidence-based policymaking and collaboration were crucial to translating science into workable national strategies.

    He said, “We know the science behind reduced-risk products. Our task is to work with stakeholders — smokers, healthcare providers, and policymakers — to apply this knowledge locally. It’s about creating a balance between benefits and risks, grounded in Nigerian realities.”

    Adebisi stressed that healthcare professionals must play an active role in educating smokers about available cessation options.

    According to him, “Health workers are key messengers. They can guide smokers through available tools, from nicotine replacement therapies to safer alternatives like vaping, as practiced in the United Kingdom.”

    He added that public awareness campaigns and training initiatives could bridge knowledge gaps.

    “Education through pharmacies, webinars, and the media is essential. Recently, we organized a webinar for journalists and launched a Tobacco Harm Reduction Scholarship Programme to build media capacity on the issue,” he added.

    Also, a public health expert from Cameroon, Dr. Tata Eunice, cautioned that Nigeria must strengthen regulation, affordability, and accessibility to replicate Sweden’s success.

    She said, “Sweden’s achievements came through strong regulation and access to affordable alternatives. Nigeria must ensure that safer products are accessible, affordable, and well-regulated to prevent misuse.”

    She emphasised the role of education in shaping young people’s attitudes toward smoking.

    According to her, “Most smokers start young. Educating students early about tobacco harm reduction will go a long way in preventing addiction and promoting healthier choices.”

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    He said, “The media plays a powerful role in shaping perceptions. Continuous conversation and awareness at the community level can drive behavioural change.”

    Olatunji also underscored the importance of integrating harm reduction into Nigeria’s health and education systems.

    He said, “Tertiary institutions can help young adults understand harm reduction better. If we link this to mental health awareness, people will make informed lifestyle choices.

    “Harm reduction isn’t about encouraging smoking,” he clarified. “It’s about giving people safer choices, improving public health, and reducing deaths linked to tobacco.”

    The forum made collective appeal for Nigeria to develop a national harm reduction framework built on scientific evidence, regulatory reform, and public education — an approach that could help the country replicate Sweden’s success story while protecting millions from smoking-related harm.

    ​  

    •Castro: Nigeria can save significant health costs if smoking prevalence declined James Emejo in Abuja Public health experts, yesterday urged the federal government to adapt Sweden’s successful anti-smoking model to

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