West Africa faces rising flood risks, study warns of urgent climate action

By Enoch Gyakye

West Africa is set to experience a sharp rise in both the frequency and severity of flooding, with climate change emerging as the tipping point, a new study has revealed.

The research calls for immediate attention from governments, decision-makers and local planners to adopt climate-adaptive frameworks and strengthen flood-management measures. Since climate change began to affect the sub-region, West Africa has become a key focus of climate studies.

According to the report, the region remains one of the most heavily impacted by devastating floods that damage infrastructure, claim thousands of lives and disrupt agriculture. Until now, however, West Africa has lacked the large-scale data needed to guide effective adaptation plans.

This latest work is among the most extensive assessments yet undertaken in the region. Researchers employed two large-scale hydrological models—HMF-WA and LISFLOOD—alongside five bias-corrected CMIP6 climate models. They analysed 58 river catchments under two climate-change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), with projections covering both the mid-term (2031–2060) and the long-term (2071–2100).

To achieve these insights, the team used advanced statistical techniques, notably the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) models, allowing them to compare projected future flooding with historical records from 1985 to 2014.

The results are striking. Flood magnitudes are expected to increase at 94% of sites for 2-year floods and 96% for 20-year floods in the near term. Looking further ahead, 88% of sites for 2-year floods and 93% for 20-year floods will experience higher magnitudes. Some areas could see flood intensity jump by more than 45%.

Evidence also shows that extreme flood events have already shifted since the 1970s in several river basins. Crucially, the study finds that climate factors outweigh hydrological modelling choices, lending extra credibility to the findings across the region.

The researchers warn that without swift intervention, worsening flood risks could threaten food security, urban development and economic stability across West Africa, including Ghana. They stress the urgent need to: