By Oskar Nwaudah 

The shadow of single-party dominance over Nigerian democracy looms large. Nigeria’s vibrant, albeit often turbulent, multi-party system is showing disquieting signs of a gradual metamorphosis into a de facto one-party state.

While the facade of a pluralistic political landscape remains, the ascendant dominance of a single political behemoth, coupled with the systematic attrition of opposition strength, casts a long shadow over the future of democratic governance in Africa’s most populous and influential nation.

This insidious trend, if not urgently addressed, risks unraveling decades of arduous democratic consolidation and portends grave consequences for the integrity of governance, the delicate fabric of national unity, and the prospects for sustainable economic development. The promise of a truly representative Nigeria hangs in the balance.

The Fraying Fabric of Democratic Norms

The unraveling of checks and balances is arguably birthing an asymmetrical power dynamic. The most immediate and corrosive consequence of a burgeoning one-party system is the insidious erosion of fundamental democratic checks and balances. In the absence of a robust and effective opposition, the ruling party operates with diminishing accountability, fostering an environment ripe for unilateral decision-making that circumvents essential parliamentary scrutiny and meaningful public consultation.

This dangerous concentration of power strikes at the very heart of the separation of powers, a cornerstone of Nigeria’s constitutional framework designed to prevent tyranny and ensure responsible governance. The potential for unchecked executive power and the marginalization of legislative and judicial oversight becomes stark realities.

Historical Precedents: Lessons from Africa and Beyond

Similar trends have been observed in other African countries, such as Uganda and Rwanda, where dominant parties have maintained power through a combination of electoral manipulation and opposition suppression. In these instances, the erosion of democratic institutions has led to human rights abuses, economic stagnation, and social unrest. Nigeria can learn from these examples and take proactive measures to avert a similar decline.

When ballots lose their meaning, this foreshadows the eclipsing of electoral integrity. As one party entrenches its control, the sanctity of the electoral process, the bedrock of any democracy, risks being reduced to a mere symbolic exercise rather than a genuine reflection of the people’s will.

There are increasing and troubling allegations of manipulation tactics employed throughout the electoral cycle; these include insidious voter intimidation, partisan administration by ostensibly neutral electoral bodies, and the unsettling influence of questionable judicial interventions in post-election disputes.

When citizens develop a pervasive perception that electoral outcomes are preordained, a corrosive voter apathy takes root, creating a self-perpetuating cycle that further solidifies single-party dominance by discouraging participation and dissent. The legitimacy of the government becomes increasingly questioned.

Data-Driven Insights: Electoral Trends, Governance Indicators

According to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Nigeria’s electoral integrity has been declining in recent years, with a significant drop in the perceived freedom and fairness of elections. The World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators also show a decline in Nigeria’s voice and accountability scores, underscoring the urgent need for action to restore democratic governance.

The Muzzling of Political Dissent

The systematic targeting of opposition voices will effectively lead to silencing the alternative tendencies. Recent years have witnessed a disturbing pattern of opposition politicians facing what appear to be politically motivated charges, arbitrary detentions, and protracted legal battles.

High-profile instances of opposition leaders being controversially disqualified from electoral contests or enduring seemingly endless judicial proceedings raise serious concerns about a deliberate strategy to systematically suppress alternative political viewpoints and cripple the opposition’s ability to effectively challenge the ruling party. This chilling effect extends beyond individual politicians, discouraging wider participation in opposition politics.

Expert Perspectives: Voices from Civil Society

Dr. Wole Olaiya, a Nigerian democracy expert, notes, “The suppression of opposition voices is a recipe for disaster. It undermines the very foundation of democracy and creates an environment ripe for authoritarianism.” Civil society organizations, such as the Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room, have similarly raised alarms about the erosion of democratic space and the urgent need for protective action to safeguard Nigeria’s democracy.

The Shrinking Civic Space: Constricting Democracy’s Oxygen

Civil society organizations (CSOs) and independent media outlets, vital pillars of a healthy democracy, are facing escalating restrictions through a combination of legal and extra-legal pressures. The enactment of vaguely worded or unduly restrictive legislation, the arbitrary freezing of activists’ financial assets, and the intimidation and harassment of critical journalists cultivate a climate of fear that stifles open political discourse and discourages the exercise of fundamental rights to free expression and assembly.

This gradual silencing of dissent dismantles crucial feedback mechanisms essential for holding the government accountable and responding to the citizenry’s needs.

The Vacuum of Competitive Policymaking: The Perils of Groupthink

Genuine political competition serves as a powerful catalyst for innovative and responsive governance solutions. In its absence, policymaking risks becoming insular, detached from the diverse needs and perspectives of the populace, and susceptible to groupthink.

Without the rigorous challenges and alternative approaches offered by a vibrant opposition, government programs often lack thorough scrutiny, leading to inefficiencies in implementation, misallocation of resources, and ultimately suboptimal outcomes for the Nigerian people. The dynamism inherent in a multi-party system is lost.

The insidious decay of institutions, loyalty over competence and entrenched single-party dominance often accelerates the insidious deterioration of critical public institutions as appointments to key positions increasingly rely on political loyalty rather than demonstrable competence and merit.

Vital agencies responsible for key functions, such as economic management, national security, and the fight against corruption, become politicized, severely undermining their effectiveness and impartiality. This institutional decay disproportionately impacts ordinary Nigerians through the erosion of public services, the exacerbation of economic hardship, and a decline in overall governance quality.

The Vicious Cycle of Corruption and Economic Regression

Historical evidence overwhelmingly demonstrates that unchecked political power creates fertile ground for the proliferation of corruption. Without meaningful and effective opposition oversight, corrupt practices, ranging from the inflation of government contracts to the normalization of nepotistic appointments and outright embezzlement of public funds, become deeply entrenched within the system.

Nigeria’s already significant challenges with corruption would likely be dramatically amplified in a one-party scenario, with devastating consequences for economic development and social equity.

The Costly Erosion of Investor Confidence

The international business community closely monitors political developments in major economies like Nigeria, recognizing the strong link between political stability and economic prospects. Visible signs of democratic backsliding, the weakening of institutions, and the suppression of dissent send negative signals to potential foreign direct investors, crucial for Nigeria’s economic growth and job creation.

Likely outcomes include capital flight, increased currency instability, and a significant reduction in overall economic growth, further exacerbating existing problems of unemployment and poverty.

The Looming Threats to National Stability

The radicalization of marginalized groups flow from systematic political exclusion and the perception of being perpetually disenfranchised often serve as potent catalysts for the seeding of dissent in regions and groups within Nigeria. When political mechanisms fail to address the concerns and aspirations of diverse communities, particularly in the North-East and Niger Delta regions, frustrations can escalate into violence and extremism.

The lack of inclusive governance and equitable resource distribution fuels grievances, leaving disenfranchised populations vulnerable to manipulation by extremist factions. This radicalization poses a serious threat to national security and social cohesion.

The Possibility of Civil Unrest: A Tipping Point for Chaos

As political discontent mounts, the risk of civil unrest becomes increasingly palpable. Historical precedents from Nigeria’s past, marked by widespread protests, strikes, and even violent uprisings, illustrate how public frustration can culminate in chaos.

As citizens grapple with the dual burdens of economic stagnation and political disenfranchisement, the potential for mass mobilization against perceived injustices looms large. Such unrest not only jeopardizes the stability of the state but can also deter foreign investment and exacerbate economic woes.

In light of these precarious dynamics, urgent action is required to safeguard Nigeria’s democratic framework and prevent the full realization of a one-party state. Political leaders, civil society, and everyday citizens must unite in a commitment to restoring integrity to the electoral process, safeguarding the rights of dissenters, and establishing effective checks and balances.

Initiatives that promote civic education, encourage active participation in governance, and bolster the independence of electoral institutions are essential for fostering a democratic culture grounded in accountability and responsiveness.

The Imperative for Collective Commitment

In closing, Nigeria stands at a crossroads, with the potential for either vibrant democratic renewal or the perilous path toward autocracy. The creeping monolith of a one-party system threatens both the nation’s political integrity and its social fabric.

It is incumbent upon all stakeholders, government, civil society, and citizens to actively engage in the defense of democratic ideals, uphold the rule of law, and promote a political environment that truly reflects the diverse voices of Nigeria’s populace. The commitment to resisting the allure of single-party dominance and nurturing a pluralistic democracy is vital for securing a prosperous and harmonious future for Nigeria.

–        Dr. Nwaudah, public affairs analyst, writes from Asaba 

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