Tariffs, trade wars, and deportations are reshaping global security, argues ABIODUN OLUWADARE

As the world confronts an age of shifting alliances and rising nationalist fervour, the threat of global war no longer comes in the familiar form of tanks and air raids. Instead, the 21st century is witnessing the slow ignition of what some have described as the Third World War—fought not with bombs, but with tariffs, trade restrictions, deportations, and economic exclusion. It is a war whose battlefield spans from the boardrooms of Washington to the food markets of Kano, and whose casualties are not soldiers, but civilians—hungry, displaced, and economically strangled.

Economic Warfare: The New Global Frontline

The second term of former U.S. President Donald Trump acceler-ated a trend that has now become central to the global economic order: the use of tariffs and trade policies as instruments of geopolitical dominance. The Trump administration’s re-imposition of massive tariffs on Chinese goods, some exceeding 25%, has triggered a boomerang effect. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, by the end of 2024, over $550 billion worth of goods between the U.S. and China were impacted by retaliatory tariffs. In turn, Beijing struck back with duties on $185 billion worth of American exports. Meanwhile, the U.S. decision to enforce stricter technology bans on Chinese tech giants like Huawei and TikTok has been met with aggressive countermeasures by China, including its threat to cut off rare-earth mineral exports, resources vital for global electronics and defence industries. But the confrontation doesn’t stop at China. Canada, historically America’s “polite” northern neighbour, has faced bruising tariffs on aluminium and steel. According to Statistics Canada, retaliatory duties cost Canadian exporters over $1.6 billion between 2023 and 2024 alone. In Europe, the Trump administration’s insistence on “reciprocal trade” has led to tensions with the EU over agricultural imports and digital service taxes. As noted by the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the U.S. was involved in more trade disputes in 2024 than any other nation, signalling a full-blown escalation on multiple fronts.

Africa: The Strategic Pawn and Silent Victim.

China, sensing an opportunity, has seized the moment to deepen its economic influence in Africa. While American exports are priced out of many African markets, Chinese goods have flooded in at far cheaper rates. In 2024, AfroTradeMonitor reports that Chinese exports to sub-Saharan Africa surged by 17%, while American exports declined by 8%. The resulting economic shift has drawn former U.S. allies closer to Beijing. Africa, a continent that contributes the least to global trade disputes, ironically bears some of the heaviest burdens from them. As Chinese goods flood its markets due to redirected trade flows, American exports become increasingly unaffordable. And while China builds railways in Nigeria and ports in Djibouti, it also wins over former U.S. allies through a strategy of economic courtship rather than coercion.

However, the consequences of this economic cold war go beyond infrastructure and diplomacy. For ordinary Africans, the impact is more visceral. Rising tariffs and supply chain disruptions have triggered food inflation across the continent. According to the FAO Global Index, food prices in parts of Africa rose by as much as 22% in early 2025. Fertilisers, agricultural machinery, and even life-saving pharmaceuticals have become more expensive, reducing productivity and deepening food insecurity.

We must begin to recognize that hunger today is not only the byproduct of drought or war—it is increasingly a weapon wielded through policy. When powerful nations manipulate global trade, it is the poor in Kano, Bamako, and Nairobi who go to bed hungry. These are not unintended consequences—they are structural outcomes of a new form of war without bombs.

Deportation and Displacement: Policy as Punishment

In tandem with economic exclusion, immigration policies have become another front in this silent war. The United States has intensified the deportation of immigrants, many of whom are fleeing the very economic instability that these tariff wars have helped create. When these individuals are forcibly returned to fragile states, it adds pressure to already overstretched systems, creating humanitarian crises that bleed into security concerns.

What happens when a deportee lands in a nation where food prices have doubled, jobs have vanished, and inflation is rampant? Displacement becomes a destabilising force, not just a human tragedy.

A Cold War Reborn? The idea that interdependence once ensured peace is being turned on its head. Today, interdependence has become a tool of leverage—what scholars call “weaponised interdependence.” Nations are now using supply chains, digital technologies, and financial systems as strategic tools of coercion. The recent escalation in cyberwarfare, space-based rivalry, and currency manipulation only adds fuel to an already volatile situation.

While missiles are yet to be launched, alliances are already shifting. Russia and China have increased joint military exercises. The U.S. is reinforcing its Pacific alliances with Japan, Australia, and the Philippines under the Indo-Pacific Strategy. Like a Cold War in fast-forward, economic blocs are forming, cyberspace is militarised, and critical infrastructure is now a security threat. BRICS nations, meanwhile, are ditching the dollar and turning to local currencies to reduce vulnerability. The world is regrouping—not to avoid war, but to prepare for a new kind of it. Even outer space is contested, with the U.S. and China launching duelling satellite constellations for strategic dominance.

Retaliation vs. Strategy: A Call for African Foresight

In the face of this economic siege, some have called for retaliatory measures—tariffs for tariffs, sanctions for sanctions. But for nations in the Global South, especially in Africa, such moves may be emotionally satisfying but strategically reckless. The answer lies not in matching aggression, but in regional economic integration, diplomatic realism, and multilateral cooperation.

Retaliation may soothe the national ego, but it cannot feed a hungry child or rebuild a broken economy. Africa must instead prioritise regional trade frameworks like the African Continental Free Trade Area (Afcfta), strengthen intra-African supply chains, and invest in local manufacturing capacity.

 The War We Refuse to Acknowledge: The Third World War may have already begun, without a single missile launched. It is being fought in boardrooms, customs terminals, and on the screens of algorithmic trade platforms. The tools of this war are tariffs, cyberattacks, deportations, sanctions, and scarcity. The victims are families, workers, students, and the unborn.

No bullets, Yet the World Burns. To ignore the brewing global conflict simply because tanks are not rolling is to misunderstand the nature of 21st-century warfare. The Third World War may not arrive with a mushroom cloud, but with collapsing markets, isolated economies, and diplomatic trenches carved by distrust. President Trump’s second-term policies have not just redrawn America’s economic map—they have forced a realignment of global power. Whether this leads to a full-scale confrontation or compels nations to recalibrate their interests remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the world is already at war. The question is whether we will realise it before it is too late to stop it.

Dr. OLuwadare is a professor of Strategy and International Security at the Nigerian Defence Academy. He is a retired Colonel who graduated from the same Academy as a member of the 26th Regular Course

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