Hot Source…As Agyapong Emerges Top Contender
Sanity Africa, the Pan-African civil society organisation, has published its Phase Two survey on the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primaries. This survey contradicts the latest quarterly tracking poll by Global InfoAnalytics, which places ex-Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia as the clear frontrunner to lead the opposition NPP into the 2028 general election.
Sanity Africa’s findings reveal a shifting landscape as the party looks ahead to the January 2026 general elections.
According to the abridged October report, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong has consolidated his position as the frontrunner among NPP delegates, commanding 53.1% of voting intentions. This represents a 1.7 percentage point increase from the Phase One survey conducted in July.
In July, Global InfoAnalytics and Mussa Dankwah stated that Dr Bawumia, the 2024 NPP presidential candidate, was leading the race to become the party’s candidate for the 2028 presidential election, commanding 56% of support among all voters, with the former Assin Central MP, Kennedy Agyapong, receiving 23%.
In September, Global InfoAnalytics found that 57% of voters preferred Dr. Bawumia as the party’s presidential candidate, compared to 29% for former Assin Central MP Kennedy Ohene Agyapong.
Former Minister of Education, Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum, received 6%, Minister of Food and Agriculture Dr. Bryan Acheampong scored 5%, while former NPP General Secretary Kwabena Agyapong recorded 3%.
Sanity Africa recently got it right, predicting Bernard Baidoo of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) would win the closely contested Akwatia by-election, while Mussa Dankwah and his Global InfoAnalytics had forecasted a victory for the NPP.
Dr Bawumia, the former Vice President, leads with 39.0%, showing a 3.2-point decrease, according to Sanity Africa. Behind him are Dr Bryan Acheampong at 5.0% (up 1.9 points), Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum at 2.0% (down 1.0 point), and Ing. Kwabena A. Agyepong at 0.9% (up from 0.3%).
The survey, conducted between July and October 2025, sampled 15,000 delegates from an estimated 218,000 in the expanded voter register across all 276 constituencies. It has a 99% confidence level with a ±5% margin of error. Regionally, Ken leads in 10 of Ghana’s 16 regions, including strongholds such as Ashanti (54.8%), Central (69.0%), and Eastern (54.8%).
Dr Bawumia maintains a lead in six regions, especially in the north, including North East (70.0%) and Upper West (60.2%). Competitive races are developing in Bono East, Savannah, and Upper East, where margins are still narrow. Notable shifts include Dr Bawumia increasing his lead in the North East Region from 51.6% to 70.0%, while Ken strengthened his position in Volta (50.8%) and Bono (53.0%).
Dr Bryan Acheampong achieved notable gains in his home region of Eastern, reaching 21.7%. Sanity Africa stated that these changes reflect shifting delegate sentiments influenced by campaign strategies and regional dynamics.
The organisation emphasised that while Ken Agyapong currently has the upper hand, the contest remains fluid.
Endorsements, messaging, and campaign strategies, it said, are expected to play critical roles in shaping the outcome.
With Phase Three of the survey scheduled for release in January 2026, Sanity Africa concluded that Ken may be the one to beat, but the race is far from over.
In the July poll, Global InfoAnalytics reported that Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum secured 9%, Patrick Yaw Boamah polled 4%, Bryan Acheampong received 3%, while other potential candidates collectively accounted for 5%.
Among NPP voters, Dr. Bawumia leads decisively with 70% support. Agyapong follows with 17%, Dr Adutwum has 7%, Boamah 1%, Acheampong 2%, and others 2%.
“The poll shows that Dr Bawumia has extended his lead among general voters from 48% in April 2025 to 57% in June 2025, and among NPP voters, his lead has increased from 57% in April to 70% in June.”
Dubbed the National Tracking Poll, Global InfoAnalytics published on July 1, 2025, also revealed interesting trends among National Democratic Congress (NDC) supporters.
According to the results, 50% of NDC voters back Dr Bawumia, 26% support Agyapong, 10% prefer Dr Adutwum, with Boamah and Acheampong both receiving 4% support. The remaining 6% of respondents selected other options.
Global InfoAnalytics further noted that: “Analysis of the poll also shows that among voters who voted for Dr Bawumia in the 2024 presidential election, 74% would like him to lead the NPP, while 14% back Agyapong, 7% prefer Dr Adutwum, 1% prefer Boamah, 3% prefer Acheampong and the remaining 1%.”
However, the poll also shows tighter competition among undecided and non-voting respondents: “The race is much tighter among voters who did not tell us who they voted for in the 2024 elections and those who did not vote at all. Among those who did not disclose who they voted for, Dr Bawumia leads with 49% and Agyapong 38%, Dr Adutwum has 3%, Boamah, 2% and Acheampong 3%.”
“Among those who did not vote, Dr Bawumia is preferred by 36%, 31% prefer Agyapong, 15% prefer Dr Adutwum, 7% prefer Boamah, and 5% prefer Acheampong.”
The poll highlights Dr Bawumia’s continued dominance in the NPP’s internal race as well as his growing appeal across party lines—while also pointing to competitive segments of the electorate that remain in play.
Mussa Dankwah’s latest result shows Bawumia leading the NPP presidential race with 57% support among general voters, compared to 29% for his closest contender, former Assin Central MP Kennedy Agyapong. Other aspirants trail significantly behind, with Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum at 6%, Dr. Bryan Acheampong at 5%, and Kwabena Agyapong at 3%.
According to Mussa Dankwah, in the critical swing regions of Greater Accra, Central, and Western, Dr. Bawumia also leads decisively with 57%, followed by Kennedy Agyapong at 32%. Dr. Adutwum and Dr. Acheampong each secured 4%, while Kwabena Agyapong obtained 3%.
He said that the survey further indicates that in a potential runoff between Dr. Bawumia and Kennedy Agyapong, Dr. Bawumia would extend his lead with 62% against Agyapong’s 38%.
Among NPP delegates, Dr. Bawumia remains firmly ahead with 47%, while Kennedy Agyapong trails with 17%. Dr Acheampong and Dr Adutwum received 3% and 1% respectively, with Kwabena Agyapong also at 1%. However, 27% of delegates remain undecided, and 4% declined to disclose their preference.
In a runoff scenario within the delegates’ poll, Dr Bawumia commands 49%, compared to Kennedy Agyapong’s 19%, with 27% undecided and 5% declining to disclose.
Mr Dankwah, later offered insight into why Dr. Bawumia is enjoying a commanding lead over his rivals in the race to become the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential candidate for the 2028 elections.
In an interview on Citi FM’s The Big Issue on Saturday, October 4, following the release of the latest Global InfoAnalytics tracking poll, Dankwah pointed to two key factors behind Bawumia’s dominance: his long-standing presence in NPP politics and the conservative nature of the party’s delegate base.
“I will pin this down to two factors,” Dankwah explained. “One, Bawumia has been the face of NPP since 2008. He’s been on every election ticket since then. So he is the familiar face for many people. That makes it easier for him to be organised and more likely for people to want him back on the ticket.”
Dankwah also noted that age and tradition play a crucial role in how NPP delegates make decisions.
“The NPP delegates are conservatives. They are much older people, and the older you are, the less vibrant and dynamic and change-oriented you tend to be,” he said. “These people want to go with what they know, and they kind of dominate the NPP.”
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