Hot SourceThe results of the recent bye-elections represent a historic shift, argues JONATHAN POJAN
The mid-August 2025, bye-elections in three key constituencies in Kaduna State have established beyond doubt the growing dominance of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state, and by extension, Nigeria. What unfolded was not just a routine electoral exercise but a seismic shift that reverberated across the state. The ruling APC, under the stewardship of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani, clinched all three seats in a resounding landslide, cementing the party’s growing hegemony in a state long marked by fierce opposition strongholds. The victory in Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency; Zaria Kewaye and Basawa State Constituencies simply underscores the new direction in political allegiance in the state between the “old order” and the “new order” ably led by the Comrade Governor, Uba Sani.
The results underscore APC’s resilience and strategic prowess while exposing the fading influence of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai. The outcome offers a compelling narrative of renewal and the relentless march toward political consolidation for Governor Uba Sani.
The bye-elections, held on August 16, 2025, were necessitated by vacancies arising from resignations, deaths, and other unforeseen circumstances in these constituencies. Chikun/Kajuru, a federal seat in the House of Representatives, had been vacated amid political realignments, while Zaria Kewaye and Basawa, both state assembly seats, reflected the fluid dynamics of local governance. Kaduna, a state of over 8 million people straddling Nigeria’s North-West, has historically been a battleground where ethnic, religious, and partisan divides intersect. In past elections, these areas—particularly Chikun/Kajuru in Kaduna South—served as bastions for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other opposition forces. The 2023 general elections saw PDP’s Atiku Abubakar edge out Tinubu in Kaduna’s presidential vote, a testament to lingering anti-APC sentiments fueled by the negative administrative style of the former governor, Nasir El-Rufai. Yet, in this bye-election, the APC flipped the script with overwhelming margins, signaling a profound transformation.
The results were nothing short of spectacular. In Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency, APC’s candidate secured a decisive win, polling significantly ahead of rivals from the PDP, African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Social Democratic Party (SDP). Official figures from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) showed the APC amassing over 60% of the votes in some polling units, a stark contrast to the opposition’s fragmented tallies. Similarly, in Zaria Kewaye State Constituency, the APC candidate triumphed with a landslide, while Basawa saw APC’s Dahiru Umar-Sani declared winner amid jubilant celebrations. Nationwide, these wins contributed to the APC’s dominance in 12 out of 16 contested seats across 13 states, but Kaduna’s clean sweep stood out as a microcosm of the party’s national resurgence.
This victory is historic for several reasons. Chikun/Kajuru, encompassing diverse communities in Kaduna South, has long been an opposition enclave. Predominantly Christian southern Kaduna has grappled with banditry, farmer-herder clashes, and perceived marginalization under previous administrations, fostering deep-seated distrust toward the APC. In 2019 and 2023, PDP candidates dominated here, leveraging grievances over insecurity and economic neglect. Zaria Kewaye and Basawa, in the more urban and Muslim-majority Zaria axis, have oscillated but often leaned towards opposition due to youth unemployment and infrastructural deficits. The APC’s breakthrough represents a historic shift, it is akin to breaking the opposition’s grip and integrating these areas into the party’s fold.
Even though voter turnout was reportedly modest at around 30-40% in some areas, it nevertheless favored the APC, with reports of enthusiastic support in rural area where government interventions under the leadership of Governor Uba Sani had taken root.
This new political dominance by the APC in Kaduna can only be attributed to the leadership of President Tinubu and Governor Sani which combines competence with compassion. Tinubu’s administration, now in its third year, has prioritized economic reforms and security enhancements that resonate with the people in Kaduna. The removal of fuel subsidies, while initially painful, has been offset by targeted palliatives, including cash transfers and agricultural inputs distributed through state channels. In Kaduna, Governor Uba Sani has amplified these efforts with his “Rural Transformation Agenda,” investing heavily in road networks, healthcare, and education in southern constituencies like Chikun/Kajuru. For instance, the commissioning of new hospitals and solar-powered boreholes in Kajuru just months before the election addressed long-standing complaints, swaying voters who felt seen for the first time.
Governor Uba Sani’s inclusive governance model which emphasizes bridging ethnic divides through appointments and dialogue, contrasts sharply with past eras of polarization. Under Tinubu’s broader umbrella, federal projects like the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano highway rehabilitation have boosted connectivity, creating jobs and stimulating commerce. These tangible gains, coupled with aggressive grassroots mobilization, turned potential liabilities into assets. APC campaigns emphasized “Renewed Hope,” framing the bye-elections as a referendum on progress, and voters responded affirmatively.
Yet, this triumph is as much about what the APC has built as what the opposition has lost. The PDP, once a formidable force in Kaduna, now fragmented amid internal squabbles, fielded candidates who struggled to galvanize support. INEC’s transparent processes, including biometric verification, largely withstood scrutiny, and independent observers noted a comparatively peaceful poll despite isolated incidents.
Curiously, the ADC and SDP, buoyed by endorsements from disgruntled figures, mounted spirited challenges but faltered miserably with their votes splintering the fortune of the opposition further in a disgraceful fall.
No figure embodies this opposition’s decline more starkly than former Governor El-Rufai. Once hailed as a reformist technocrat who seemly modernized Kaduna from 2015 to 2023, El-Rufai’s post-governorship trajectory has been a master class in political erosion. His tenure, marked by bold but contentious policies—mass teacher sackings, urban demolitions, and stringent fiscal measures—alienated swathes of the populace. Southern Kaduna communities, in particular, accused him of indifference to their security plight, with massacres under his watch fueling resentment.
El-Rufai’s fallout with the APC establishment, including his failed ministerial nomination in 2023 due to security concerns, pushed him toward opposition alliances. In the last weekend bye-election, he openly backed ADC and SDP candidates, campaigning vigorously in Chikun/Kajuru and framing the poll as a vote of lack of confidence in Governor Uba Sani’s administration. However, the results were a humiliating rebuke to the ex-governor. ADC and SDP candidates, despite El-Rufai’s rallies and social media blitz, only garnered inconsequential paltry votes, a loud political statement that emphasizes his now substantially diminished political clout. In areas like Kajuru, where he once wielded influence, voters rejected his endorsed picks, opting for APC’s promise of continuity. On social media, poignantly biting terse posts, loaded with mockery tones were flying up and down. Examples are: “Kaduna spoke loudly today,” while others labeled it El-Rufai’s “disgrace.”
His son’s involvement in the campaign only amplified the family’s isolation. This ostensibly austere outing, a poor showing marked by overconfidence and under-delivery, highlights El-Rufai’s unpopularity. Once a kingmaker, he now embodies the perils of overreach. Policies like the controversial competency tests for teachers, which led to 21,000 dismissals, left lasting scars, eroding his base among educators and civil servants. His vocal criticism of Tinubu’s reforms, including subsidy removal, alienated party loyalists, positioning him as a spoiler rather than a statesman.
Governor Uba Sani’s victory dance was a cryptic jibe at the now opposition in disarray, where he declared that “There’s no ballot box on X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, or Instagram.” The import is not far-fetched, El-Rufai’s online activism couldn’t translate to winning votes.
The implications of the bye-election extend beyond Kaduna. For the APC, it validates Tinubu’s leadership amid economic headwinds, proving that strategic governance can yield electoral dividends. Governor Uba Sani emerged strengthened, his administration’s focus on inclusivity and development paying off in formerly hostile terrains. For El-Rufai, it’s a cautionary tale: political capital, once squandered, is hard to reclaim. As 2027 looms large in the horizon, his flirtations with opposition coalitions—rumoured alliances with Peter Obi’s Obidients—may further marginalize him. Kaduna’s voters have signaled a preference for stability over disruption, inclusivity over division.
To be frank, the Kaduna bye-elections of last weekend, August 16, 2025, were more than a win for the APC; they were a positive referendum on leadership and legacy. Under President Tinubu and Governor Sani, the party has not only consolidated power but rewritten the state’s political map, turning opposition redoubts into APC fortresses.
While El-Rufai’s fading star serves as a poignant reminder that popularity is fleeting, especially when built on selfishness rather than empathy. As Nigeria navigates its democratic journey, the Kaduna landslide victory at the bye elections, offers hope: that progress, when delivered, can eclipse even the deepest grievances.
Pojan Jnr, an Architect and good governance campaigner, writes from Abuja
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