In global affairs, discretion is always wiser than valour, writes

RAJENDRA ANEJA

As India celebrates its 79^th birthday, it has bountiful aspirations. First, it should control its population. India has the largest population in the world, at 1.46 billion. Every country has circumscribed resources of land, water, food, jobs, etc. If the population keeps growing, India will not be able to improve the quality of life of its citizens. The country needs to undertake persuasive family planning.

India needs to provide more food to all citizens. Many of the urban and rural poor live on one or two meals a day, instead of three meals and an evening snack.  We need to ensure that people eat nutritious food. Eating wholesome food is becoming difficult, due to inflation. Prices of dairy products, lentils and flour have been swelling. Fruits like apples are becoming luxuries.

Whilst overall poverty is diminishing, there are millions yet living in destitution in the cities and villages. They subsist on free food grains and cash transfers, bestowed by governments, as election bonanzas. India is the fourth largest economy in the world. However, the country ranks 141^st in per capita GDP globally. The fruits of high growth, should trickle down to every person. There are significant income inequalities in the country. Rising medical costs are distressing the lower-incomed. Medicines and hospitals rates have spiraled. A serious illness, can erase the life-savings of an uninsured middle-class person. About 64 percent of India lives in villages. Rural clinics need to be better equipped and staffed.

India needs to become investor friendly, to attract more capital in high-technology industries. To entice investment, it needs to improve the urban infrastructure, so that life is comfortable and enjoyable. India also needs economically priced housing, so that nobody sleeps on pavements. The streets are incredibly dirty, in the bigger and older cities. India needs to clean them mechanically.

India needs to generate millions of jobs to employ the youth-explosion. India may be the youth factory of the world, but then youngsters have to travel to other countries, to earn their livelihood. The education in schools and universities needs to be job and skill oriented. Everyone wants to specialize in Information Technology. But a country needs manufacturing, marketing and medical skills too. India needs clarity about the areas in which Artificial Intelligence, can improve productivity. AI should not just become another buzz-word.

Indians should guard against celebrity worship. What movie and sports stars wear and eat, is becoming more important than our own lives. Knowledge has to be esteemed, not sensationalism. Whilst we respect animals, we cannot let stray dogs and nomadic leopards maul children or senior citizens.

Indians need to work together, irrespective of religion, creed or language. A country with multifarious cultures and languages cannot fight within. It will fragment. The focus should be on character building. The young need to read more books and spend less time on digital apps.

Indians need to exercise daily, to burn the calories of oily diets, to prevent the country from becoming obese. Finally, Indians need to rediscover the lost joys of long walks, among mountains, trees and flowers.

These are many hopes for India, but even if a few are fulfilled in the next decade, it will be a cheerful journey.

Now, India is confronted with the new challenge of managing the 50 percent tariffs imposed on many products, by the USA. The tariffs are hurting. Orders for products like apparel, gem stones, footwear, shrimps, etc., are on hold. Workers in major production centres are in turmoil. Most small and medium sized exporters of these items, fear that the future will be bleak. Many of these factories will face closure. Their workmen may lose their livelihoods.

Manufacture of products like garments and footwear, is labour intensive. So, thousands of workers may get unemployed. Many women work in the apparel industry, particularly in South India. They support their families financially. Their lives will be adversely impacted. Their children may not be able attend school. Poverty will rise at a time, when efforts are being made globally to diminish hunger and foster literacy. Then, local purchasing power will erode.

India could lose its competitive advantage of low-cost skilled labour, if its export markets dissolve. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, China, Bangladesh, etc., will aggressively fill the gaps in supplies. India will struggle to get a foothold in the international market at a later stage. It is not easy to woo back lost customers.

India should not diffuse the issue by underscoring that USA wants to push its food grains and dairy products to India. Frankly, President Trump just wants India to stop buying Russian oil. Now, India has always taken a neutral posture on many global issues. The Indian purchase of Russian oil was always known across the world. India will have to negotiate with the USA and take a balanced stance. It will not be easy. However, there is no option. USA is one the richest and largest markets globally. No developing country can ignore it.

The high tariffs on many Indian products will lead to higher prices in the USA. It will also contract the demand for them. Some economists have recommended that India should focus on creating domestic demand for these products or scan alternate markets. Frankly, this many not be very practical. Indians are not going to suddenly wear more clothes or shoes or eat more shrimps.

The USA is a large and affluent market. Not many countries have its purchasing power. So, it is not easy to find other equivalent markets for Indian products. Every country has specific design or taste preferences. It takes years and decades to build a foreign market and loyal buyers. It is not simple.

So, it would be prudent for India to pursue the dialogue vigorously with the USA and seek a reduction in the import tariffs. In global affairs, discretion is always wiser than valour.

 Aneja was the General Sales Manager, Unilever India and then Managing Director of Unilever Tanzania. He is an alumnus of Harvard Business School, and the author of books entitled, “Rural Marketing across Countries and “Business Express”. A Management Consultant, he writes from Mumbai, India

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