Olanrewaju Fatunmbi

Excitement is still very much in the air following the victory of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the Sagamu/Ikenne/Remo North Federal Constituency bye-election held on Saturday, August 16, 2025.
Ogun State is one of the 12 states where elections were conducted to fill the vacant seats in the affected constituencies. Due to the keen interest generated by the contending parties and their candidates, the election was widely viewed by political analysts as a referendum on the popularity and performance of the Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun-led administration. Thankfully, the outcome strongly affirmed a vote of confidence from the electorate for his leadership. The APC candidate, who was backed by the governor, secured a convincing victory, winning by a significant margin. The final results, as released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), showed a clear mandate for the ruling party, leaving no room for doubt about the electorate’s preference. This was not a narrow win but a clear affirmation of the APC’s dominance in the State.
The bye-election was the first significant electoral contest in the state since Governor Abiodun’s re-election. The decisive victory serves as a powerful validation of his leadership. On a broader note, the outcome is also seen as a public endorsement of the governor’s key projects and policies, including the massive infrastructural development like the Gateway International Airport (GIA), which is located within the same Senatorial District. Winning a major election in the area where these projects are sited suggests that the public is pleased with the direction of the state. The party’s success in a crucial federal constituency like Remo serves as a powerful political statement and a strong indicator of the public’s sentiment towards the Abiodun-led administration.
However, consolidation of APC’s continued dominance will be determined by a succession process that is built on trust, justice, fairness and equity. This is the least the marginalized Yewa/Awori people in Ogun West are asking for in their quest for power shift. The long-term consolidation of the APC’s dominance will be determined by the handling of the gubernatorial succession process, which must be seen to be fair and equitable, especially by the people of Ogun West.
Since the creation of Ogun State on February 3, 1976, the governorship has been a rotational affair, but it has only been held by individuals from the Ogun Central and Ogun East senatorial districts. The Ogun Central district has produced governors who have collectively served 14 years, while Ogun East has produced three governors who would have served a total of 20 years at the expiration of the current administration in 2027.
In contrast, Ogun West, despite its significant economic contributions, has never produced a democratically elected governor. This has led to a deep-seated feeling of marginalization among the Yewa and Awori people who inhabit the zone.
This historical imbalance has resulted in a disproportionate lack of infrastructure and development in their region compared to the other two districts. So, their demand is not just for political power but for equitable access to growth, development and governance. With the current governor, who hails from Ogun East, completing his second term, the clamour for the APC to cede the governorship to a candidate from Ogun West is growing louder. For the party to maintain its dominant position in Ogun State, it must navigate this issue with extreme care.
A failure to handle this process transparently and fairly could lead to internal party divisions, voter apathy in a crucial region, or a strong push by the opposition to capitalise on the discontent. To this extent, the party’s ability to demonstrate a commitment to trust, fairness, and equity in its succession plans will determine its long-term future in the state.
This is without prejudice to those individuals from Ogun East and Central Senatorial Districts who are still angling to contest the slot with Ogun West despite the loud agitation for a power shift. The current situation reflects a classic political dilemma: while there is a moral and historical argument for equity and rotation, individual’s political ambition and strategic calculation often take precedence. Such ambitious individuals from Ogun East and Ogun Central who have shown interest in the governorship contest may not see the call for a power shift as a sufficient reason to abandon their aspirations. They may believe they are the best candidates, regardless of their senatorial district, prioritizing their ambition over the collective demand for fairness. This line of thinking ignores the potential for internal party disunity and voter backlash from the Ogun West population.
It’s the primary responsibility of the party leadership to moderate and maintain strict adherence to the principles of fairness, justice and equity. The seeming lackluster attitude of the party leadership to take a firm position on power rotation has emboldened political actors to pursue their ambitions. The absence of a clear, signed agreement on zoning for the 2027 governorship race allows individuals to continue their campaigns, knowing that the field is still open. How quickly the party elders can take a definite position and manage this potential conflict will be the most critical test of their political maturity in the run-up to the next general elections.They have a duty to intervene and moderate the power dynamics. Failure to do so may lead to internal sabotage, schism and implosion. The party’s ability to moderate the power dynamics surrounding the governorship succession is the single most important factor that will determine its future unity. If the party fails to manage the succession process transparently and fairly, concerned aspirants and their supporters may withhold support for the eventual candidate. In the worst scenario, the ensuing crisis of confidence may lead to cross-carpeting to opposition parties, or engaging in a campaign of anti-party activities designed to undermine the party’s chances in the general election. This is a common pattern in Nigerian politics, and it is a risk the APC cannot afford.
The ongoing subtle contest between aspirants from Ogun West and those from the two other zone is already creating mutual suspicion. Without a clear and equitable resolution, these suspicious tendencies could evolve into a full-blown schism. This would lead to the formation of rival factions, each loyal to a different political godfather, making it impossible for the party to present a united front. In the end, the cohesion and unity that gave the party its recent victories would be shattered.
The political history of Nigeria is replete with examples of ruling parties that imploded from within due to their inability to manage internal power struggles. The Ogun State APC is not immune to this. A failure to build a consensus on a governorship candidate who is acceptable to the marginalized Ogun West district could lead to a loss of key political figures and a significant portion of the voter base, ultimately leading to the party’s implosion in the state.
The APC leadership, particularly under Governor Dapo Abiodun, holds a tremendous responsibility to manage this process. Their task is to ensure that the party’s constitution and principles of fairness are upheld. By creating an inclusive and transparent process, they can build trust and prevent the internal turmoil that would jeopardize the party’s continued dominance. Their intervention is not just a matter of political expediency but a necessity for the party’s survival.
The perceived silence of the state establishment, and by extension the governor, is not seen as a neutral stance but as a calculated part of the political game, and it does lend credence to the belief that there are underlying attempts to undermine the genuine agitation of the Yewa/Awori people.
There is a perspective that sees the perceived silence of the leadership as a deliberate strategy to avoid alienation. The most common interpretation is that Governor Dapo Abiodun is deliberately maintaining a strategic silence to avoid alienating any of the powerful factions within the party. By not publicly endorsing or rejecting the Ogun West agenda at this early stage, he can keep all governorship aspirants-from Ogun Central and Ogun East-on his side. This allows him to play the role of a political arbiter later, when the contest has heated up and a candidate needs to be imposed.
However, this strategy is already
fueling suspicion of a pre-existing deal. For the people of Ogun West in particular, the silence is deeply suspicious. After decades of marginalization and a loud, persistent campaign for equity, they expect a clear and reassuring statement from the highest office. The absence of such a statement is interpreted by many as a signal that the establishment is not truly committed to the power shift and may have a different, pre-determined plan that does not favor their district. This fuels a sense of betrayal and confirms their fears of a political conspiracy.
Instead of making direct public pronouncements, the state establishment may be using proxies to test the waters and manage the political narrative. These proxies, who may or may not have direct ties to the establishment, make public statements that float different ideas about zoning or the best candidate for the job. This allows the establishment to gauge public reaction and political resistance without exposing itself to direct criticism.
These insinuations highlight a political reality where silence is not golden, but rather a powerful tool in a high-stakes political contest. The continued perceived silence of the state establishment on the governorship succession is seen as a deliberate tactic that serves to keep aspirants in line, but it does so at the cost of public trust, particularly among the people of Ogun West who feel their decades-long plea for fairness is being ignored. The resolution of this political puzzle will be the ultimate test of the state’s leadership. Time is of the essence.

*Fatunmbi writes from Okeagbede, Imeko-Afon LGA of Ogun state

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