FROM RED TO AMBER

 UK validates improved security in Kaduna, writes LEVI ABU-ZAMANI

Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani, must be one of the happiest governors in the country at the moment. His efforts at tackling the hydra- headed security challenges which he inherited has been yielding remarkable dividends. And, notwithstanding concerted moves to de-market these noble efforts in recent time, particularly by his immediate predecessor in office, encomiums have continued to pour in, acknowledging the wonderful job he has done in stemming insecurity in the state.

The United Kingdom (UK) is the latest to acknowledge these efforts and has rightly commended Governor Sani for the significant improvement in security across the state. The UK’s Head of Development Cooperation at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), Cynthia Rowe, during the Kaduna State Mutual Accountability Framework (K-MAF) dialogue, announced that in recognition of the improved security situation in the state, Kaduna has been moved from “red” to the “amber” category in the UK’s travel advisory. This is a huge validation and an eloquent testimony to what every person has come to accept.

Rowe noted that “Security is a key enabler of growth and development, and Kaduna has weathered periods of heightened security challenges.” She said the UK acknowledges the progress recorded by the state government under Uba Sani’s leadership, adding that Kaduna will now host the UK-funded SPRiNG programme, which stands for: Strengthening Peace, Resilience and Inclusive Governance. 

“Building on this momentum, Kaduna will be host to the FCDO SPRiNG programme. SPRiNG is designed to address drivers of conflict, strengthen peace building mechanisms, and support inclusive governance,” Rowe said.

She said the UK will provide tailored support through the programme to consolidate gains in peace, promote social cohesion, and help communities affected by past insecurity to recover.

“Through SPRiNG, we will share tailored support to consolidate peace gains, promote social cohesion, and help communities most affected by past insecurity thrive,” she said.

She further reiterated UK’s commitment to Kaduna’s development goals, noting ongoing collaboration with government institutions and non-government actors.

 “The UK Government remains firmly committed to supporting Kaduna’s State development aspirations, and I am delighted to be here in Kaduna again with government colleagues, our delivery partners, and non-government stakeholders to continue to chart the way forward,” Rowe said, adding, “We will do this by deepening private sector involvement and working with agencies such as the Kaduna Investment Promotion Agency (KADIPA) to boost investment across critical sectors of the state’s economy for a fairer, more resilient economy.” 

Whatever anyone may say, reviewing its advisory from ‘red’ to ‘amber’ is a strong statement validating the efforts of Governor Sani at changing the security narrative in Kaduna State.

When he assumed office in May 2023, Uba Sani inherited a terribly fractured State that had been battered by eight years of escalating violence under the immediate past administration. Banditry, kidnapping, and ethno-religious tensions had rendered swathes of the state no-go zones, stifling both economic and social activities and displacing thousands.

Governor Sani, a former senator with a reputation for bridge-building, wasted no time. His administration’s cornerstone was the SUSTAIN agenda, a blueprint prioritizing Security, Unity, and Sustainable Transformation. While it is true that he has made very appreciable strides in all sectors, he has shone brightest in the area of tackling the hydra-headed security challenges facing the state.

From day one, Governor Sani emphasized a multi-pronged approach, blending kinetic operations with non-kinetic diplomacy which he famously called the “Kaduna Peace Model”. In February 2024, he signed the Kaduna State Security Trust Fund Bill into law, establishing a dedicated fund to equip security agencies with modern tools—drones, armored vehicles, and intelligence tech—without relying solely on federal allocations. This was not just a mere legislation; it mobilized private sector contributions to fortify the state’s defenses. Governor Uba Sani forged an ironclad partnerships with federal forces, including the Nigerian Army and Air Force, leading to joint operations that neutralized high-value targets. Notorious bandit kingpins like Boderi, Baleri, Sani Yellow, Janburos, Buhari, and Boka all fell in well coordinated strikes, while Ansaru operatives, who once used Kaduna as a launchpad, were apprehended.

Yet, the governor understood that bullets alone could not heal a fractured society. He vigorously championed the “Kaduna Peace Model,” a holistic framework rooted in community engagement. Traditional rulers, religious leaders, and civil society were carefully roped into peace committees, fostering dialogue in hotspots like Birnin Gwari, Giwa, Kajuru, Kauru, Kachia, and Igabi. These forums addressed root causes such as poverty, unemployment, and land disputes through non-violent resolutions. The model drew inspiration from global best practices but was tailored to Kaduna’s cultural mosaic, promoting inclusivity across ethnic and religious lines.

Governor Sani’s administration also invested in rural infrastructure, rehabilitating roads and deploying solar-powered boreholes to lure farmers back to their fields. Education got a boost too: scholarships for vulnerable children and the reopening of schools shuttered by fear.

By mid-2024, these efforts bore fruits. The Birnin Gwari Market, a ghost town under siege for 10 years, came back to life, and buzzed with commerce again, signaling a return to normalcy. In January 2025, Governor Uba Sani himself recommended the Kaduna model to other troubled states, a testament to its efficacy. The National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, echoed this in July 2025, hailing Sani’s leadership during the commissioning of the Qatar Charity Sanabil Project. Kaduna is transforming from an epicenter of violent attacks to a model of stability and peace.

Ms. Rowe didn’t mince words. Kaduna had languished under a “Red” advisory since 2022, advising against all travel due to rampant insecurity. But during the week, Rowe declared Governor Uba Sani’s efforts at curtailing insecurity as “real achievement”.

The import of the downgrade to “Amber” is recommending that British tourists, investors, and aid workers could now engage freely in injecting vitality into Kaduna’s economy.

For Governor Uba Sani, that was “a clear endorsement” of his peace initiatives which are poised to “boost investor confidence and position Kaduna as a safe destination.” This wasn’t flattery; it was fact-based diplomacy. The UK’s move aligned with metrics: reduced violent incidents, neutralized threats, and community buy-in. For a state once shunned by the world, it was vindication.

But success stories are bound to attract detractors, and none has been louder in this regard than El-Rufai. His tenure (2015-2023) was marked by controversies such as mass civil service sackings, ethno-religious flare-ups, and accusations of divisiveness that deepened Southern Kaduna’s grievances. He left a debt-laden state, with insecurity festering despite kinetic crackdowns. Now, sidelined after his failed ministerial bid, the former governor has turned his ire on Uba Sani, launching a barrage of criticisms aimed at rubbishing the governor’s security gains.

This narrative is now buried with facts. The UK’s statement isn’t just a praise; it’s a milestone. As Kaduna eyes 2026, Governor Uba Sani’s model offers hope: security as enabler, not endpoint. With the UK backing and domestic acclaim, the state marches forward, proving that action trumps empty echoes.

· Abu-Zamani, a good governance advocate, writes from Kaduna, Kaduna State

The post FROM RED TO AMBER appeared first on THISDAYLIVE.

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    Dangote’s Crude Imports Hit 60m Barrels in H1, as Nigeria’s Petrol Bill Swells to N4tn

    Dangote’s Crude Imports Hit 60m Barrels in H1, as Nigeria’s Petrol Bill Swells to N4tn

    *Goods valued at N18tn move through Apapa Port in Q2

    *At 1.43m bpd, Nigeria’s OPEC oil output shrinks to 5-month low in August 

    Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

    Nigeria’s ambition of achieving self-sufficiency in fuel production and fully harnessing the gains of local oil refining continues to hang by a thread, as both the importation of crude oil and refined petroleum products continued to soar concurrently in the first half of this year.

    The Dangote refinery, once Nigeria’s hope of ending all fuel imports, in the first six months of 2025, spanning January to June, imported an estimated 60 million barrels of crude oil from various parts of the world, while Nigeria’s fuel importation also hit over N4 trillion during the period.
    The cost of petrol importation for the period was sourced from data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)  at the weekend, while the 60 million barrels estimate came directly from the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote.

    In July, at the West African Refined Fuel Conference in Abuja, Dangote revealed that his company’s monthly import of crude oil had risen to between 9 million to 10 million barrels from the US and other countries. “As we speak today, we buy 9–10 million barrels of crude monthly from the US and other countries,” he said at the event.
    The development remains a paradox and contradiction of sorts, as the challenge of capital flight in the downstream oil sector, which local refining was meant to resolve, remains far from over.

    According to the NBS data, the country spent N2.3 trillion on petrol imports in Q2, 2025 as against N1.76 trillion recorded in Q1 this year, bringing the half-year total spending on importation of the product to about N4.06 trillion.
    During Q2, petrol was among the top five most imported commodities nationwide, followed by durum wheat, gas oil, crude petroleum oils, and cane sugar for refineries, the data showed.

    Nigeria has struggled to supply crude oil consistently to the Dangote Refinery, largely due to production constraints and market dynamics. Persistent underproduction has left the country unable to meet both export obligations and domestic refinery demand.

    At the same time, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), which controls much of the crude, often prioritises foreign exchange–yielding exports over local allocation. This situation has forced the Dangote Refinery, despite its promise to end fuel imports, to source crude from international markets.
    But when other fuels are added, for Q2 alone, Nigeria’s import of ‘mineral fuels’ was N4.42 trillion, representing 28.95 per cent of total imports for the period. This was followed by machinery and transport equipment with N4.33 trillion or 28.38 per cent of total imports and chemicals and related products with N2.46 trillion or 16.10 per cent of total imports.

    Using the Standard International Trade Classification, the top-ranked group imports were mineral fuels with N4,426.16 billion representing 28.95 per cent of total imports, this was followed by machinery and transport equipment with N4,338.91 billion or 28.38 per cent of total imports and chemicals & related products with N2.461.32 billion (16.10 per cent of total imports),” the data showed.
    Mineral fuels, as used in Nigeria’s trade reports, according to THISDAY checks, are a category of fossil-based energy products. They cover refined petroleum products such as petrol, diesel, kerosene and aviation fuel, as well as natural gas, among others.

    The aspiration of Nigeria when the Dangote refinery was being built remains largely unmet. The operationalisation of the 650,000 bpd facility was expected to quickly end the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.
    From the outset, the project was promoted as the solution to Nigeria’s long-standing paradox of being a major crude oil producer that nevertheless spent billions annually importing refined fuels. The refinery was meant to guarantee self-sufficiency, stabilise fuel prices, conserve foreign exchange, and even position Nigeria as a net exporter of refined products in Africa.

    However, the aspiration has so far remained somewhat unfulfilled. Instead of achieving immediate energy independence, the refinery itself has had to import crude oil due to supply and pricing challenges in the domestic market. At the same time, Nigeria’s overall fuel import has continued, showing that the promise of ending fuel imports has not yet been fully realised.

    Also, analysis by commodities showed that the main commodities exported to African countries in the quarter under review were petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, with crude valued at N1.26 trillion, accounting for 42.49 per cent of total exports to Africa.
    Kerosine type jet fuel accounted for N408.76 billion or 13.78 per cent; gas oil exported to African countries was N404.00 billion or 13.62 per cent, while other residues of petroleum oils valued at N157.51 billion or 5.31 per cent was exported within Africa.

    Also, the NBS data indicated that by mode of transport, most commodities exported out of Nigeria were done by sea in Q2 of 2025, with maritime transport accounting for N22.5 trillion or 98.93 per cent of total exports during the period.
    During the period, export trade was moved through the Apapa Port, with goods valued at N17.93 trillion or 78.83 per cent of total exports, the NBS data stressed. This was followed by Lekki Deep Sea Port, with a value of N2.4 trillion or 10.58 per cent of total export.

    Besides, import analysis revealed that Apapa Port also recorded the highest number of transactions valued at N6.96 trillion or 45.56 per cent of total imports, followed by Lekki Deep Sea Port which accounted for goods valued at N2.51 trillion or 16.44 per cent.
    In the same vein, Tin Can island Port had N1.97 trillion or 12.90 per cent of total imports, according to the NBS data under review.

    However, this dominance of ports in Lagos, creates bottlenecks, including congestion on access roads, overstretched port facilities, and delays that increase the cost of doing business. The reliance on these two Lagos ports also exposes the economy to risks of disruption, whether from strikes, insecurity, or operational breakdowns.
    Although long delayed, government efforts to decongest and diversify Nigeria’s port system, including expansion in Onne, Port Harcourt, Calabar, and Lekki Deep Seaport are aimed at reducing the overdependence on Apapa and Tin Can.

    In the same period, air transport accounted for N114.02 billion or 0.50 per cent, whereas road transport accounted for N40.55 billion or 0.18 per cent.
    Other transport channels recorded N88.29 billion or 0.39 per cent, the report released at the weekend said. Nigeria’s total export for the quota was N22.75 trillion.
    Similarly, maritime transport accounted for N14.4 trillion or 94.64 per cent of the value of total imports, the data indicated, while air transport accounted for goods valued at N714 billion or 4.67 per cent.  Road transport accounted for N105.83 billion or 0.69 per cent of import during the period under consideration.

    Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production slumped to a five-month low of 1.43 million barrels per day in August, new data from the international oil cartel has indicated.
    However, the OPEC figures, made available in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September, do not include condensate, which although has the same quality as crude oil, is excluded from its calculations of members’ contribution by OPEC.

    For context Nigeria’s condensate production was roughly 204,000 bpd in July when the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) last released its output data. The data for August is still being awaited.

    The last time Nigeria’s OPEC production was closest to the August output was in March when oil production was 1.4 million bpd, while in April, it shot up to 1.48 million bpd and then 1.45 million bpd in May, 1.5 million bpd in June and 1.5 million bpd in July.

    Available information showed that although oil production has significantly increased, Nigeria has only been able to meet its OPEC quota three times this year. These were in January, June, and July 2025.

    Further analysis of the OPEC MOMR report showed that the production figure represented a 4.7 per cent decline month-to-month. The data used by OPEC was derived from direct communication with the Nigerian authorities.

    However, despite the fall in production, Nigeria sustained its position as Africa’s leading oil producer, surpassing Libya, which recorded an output of 1.38 million bpd; Algeria with 947,000 bpd and Congo with an output of 271,000 bpd.

    Also, OPEC said the country’s oil production in August fell below the country’s assigned quota of 1.5 million bpd.

    But taking into consideration data from its secondary sources, OPEC put Nigeria’s crude production at 1.54 million bpd in August, which is a 0.15 per cent drop from the 1.55 million bpd recorded in July from the same information channel.

    Nigeria has an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million bpd  (plus condensate) built around a crude oil price benchmark of $75 dollars per barrel in its 2025 budget. A decline in either production or price below these levels has significant economic consequences.

    The post Dangote’s Crude Imports Hit 60m Barrels in H1, as Nigeria’s Petrol Bill Swells to N4tn appeared first on THISDAYLIVE.

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    *Goods valued at N18tn move through Apapa Port in Q2 *At 1.43m bpd, Nigeria’s OPEC oil output shrinks to 5-month low in August  Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja Nigeria’s ambition of
    The post Dangote’s Crude Imports Hit 60m Barrels in H1, as Nigeria’s Petrol Bill Swells to N4tn appeared first on THISDAYLIVE.

    Despite Agitations and Permutations, Tinubu Unlikely to Change Shettima as VP in 2027 Olawale Olaleye

    Despite Agitations and Permutations, Tinubu Unlikely to Change Shettima as VP in 2027 Olawale Olaleye

    In spite of recent agitations, accompanied by permutations over alleged moves by President Bola Tinubu to drop Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate in 2027, THISDAY, weekend, gathered that the president is unlikely to change his deputy in his bid for re-election.
    A reliable Villa source, who dismissed swirling reports about the fate of Shettima as hanging in the balance ahead of the 2027 elections, told THISDAY that the speculations or rumours were unfounded because Tinubu never had such discussion with anyone.

    To close his argument, the source, widely known in government circles as a man of few words, said with confidence, “The president will run with Shettima. You can file it away. Stop worrying about the rumour. He will.”
    To further establish his argument, the source, who allayed concerns about the place of the ruling party in the 2027 elections, added, “We (the APC) are winning the next election is all I know. Walahi!”
    There had been speculations that in navigating a winning strategy for his 2027 re-election bid, Tinubu might have considered the possibility of dropping Shettima as his running mate.

    In his stead, rumours had it that the president was considering someone else from the North-west, being the political heartland of northern Nigeria, with the highest voting strength, as running mate.
    Unfortunately, the rumour or speculation had begun to generate ill-feelings among supporters of the vice president, especially from his North-east geopolitical zone.

    Things came to a head in June 2025, when All Progressives Congress (APC) stakeholders in the North-east failed to mention Shettima while endorsing Tinubu for second term at a defining zonal meeting.
    The meeting, which held in Gombe State, was attended by virtually all ministers, lawmakers, and governors of the party from the North-east.

    APC National Vice Chairman for North-east, Mustapha Saliu, concluded his speech at that event without mentioning Shettima, even though he openly endorsed Tinubu.
    Salihu told the audience, “We have no business not supporting this party with all the juicy appointments and responsibilities given to us by this government.

    “I would want all members of the zonal executive committee to stand up so that we will do the proper endorsement, because it is the zonal executive committee that holds the ticket.
    “We want to reaffirm and also adopt the endorsement earlier done by the National Working Committee that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is endorsed to be a sole candidate for the 2027 election.”

    Before Salihu concluded his speech, delegates at the forum had started to hurl insults at him, with some threatening to attack him physically. But he had to be rushed out of the meeting by security operatives.
    A video footage of the meeting showed an enraged party member throwing chairs at Salihu as he fled the stage, while another delegate lobbed a plastic bucket in protest.

    Things degenerated after the former National Chairman of APC, Abdullahi Ganduje, also endorsed Tinubu alone, without mentioning Shettima.
    Ganduje did not mention Shettima’s name throughout his about 10-minute speech. He, too, had to be escorted out of the venue by security operatives.

    Though Ganduje seemed to acknowledge Shettima, when he stated, “We are proud of his deputy, his vice president, it is one ticket according to the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,” many delegates remained unconvinced and chanted, “No Shettima, no APC in the North‑east.”
    To calm the situation, Deputy National Chairman of the party, Bukar Dalori, endorsed both Tinubu and Shettima for a second term.

    But the message had been delivered and the people also had understood it in the best way possible.
    The tension that followed had forced delegates to threaten the APC leadership that if Shettima was not included in the joint ticket, they would switch allegiance to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, an opposition figure, also from the North-east.

    A delegate from Borno State, same state as Shettima, who did not want to be mentioned, said, “It’s an insult to the entire region that our own son, the vice president, was not even mentioned. This is a calculated attempt to side-line Shettima, and we will resist it with everything we have.”
    Another delegate from Adamawa State also warned, “If Shettima is dropped, I will personally lead my people to vote for Atiku. We won’t be taken for granted.”

    Several others threatened mass defection to the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
    But before the situation escalated, the governors of Yobe, Borno and Gombe, Mai Mala Buni, Babagana Zulum, and Muhammadu Yahaya, respectively, supported the Tinubu‑Shettima ticket.
    Yahaya, who spoke for others, declared, “The North‑east is fully behind the president and the vice president. Their leadership has brought renewed hope to this region.”

    An observer, James Abass, who witnessed it all, warned, “This is more than just a misunderstanding. It’s a sign of serious internal divisions within the ruling party that could trigger mass defections or the rise of a counter‑movement if not urgently addressed.”

    What finally lent credence to the state of the party with respect to the fate of the vice president, was when Shettima refused to shake hands with Ganduje at a public event.
    The snub took place in Akwa Ibom State during a reception organised in honour of Governor Umo Eno, who had just joined APC from PDP.

    In a video, Shettima was seen shaking hands with Senate President Godswill Akpabio and Eno but skipped Ganduje, who stood third in line, to greet other dignitaries behind him.

    That, for many, was a public display of dissatisfaction amid a growing rift over the 2027 presidential running mate ticket.

    However, with the new revelation from not just an insider but an active player in the government, perhaps, the situation will begin to take a different shape.

    The post Despite Agitations and Permutations, Tinubu Unlikely to Change Shettima as VP in 2027 Olawale Olaleye appeared first on THISDAYLIVE.

    ​  

    In spite of recent agitations, accompanied by permutations over alleged moves by President Bola Tinubu to drop Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate in 2027, THISDAY, weekend, gathered
    The post Despite Agitations and Permutations, Tinubu Unlikely to Change Shettima as VP in 2027 Olawale Olaleye appeared first on THISDAYLIVE.

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