*Goods valued at N18tn move through Apapa Port in Q2

*At 1.43m bpd, Nigeria’s OPEC oil output shrinks to 5-month low in August 

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Nigeria’s ambition of achieving self-sufficiency in fuel production and fully harnessing the gains of local oil refining continues to hang by a thread, as both the importation of crude oil and refined petroleum products continued to soar concurrently in the first half of this year.

The Dangote refinery, once Nigeria’s hope of ending all fuel imports, in the first six months of 2025, spanning January to June, imported an estimated 60 million barrels of crude oil from various parts of the world, while Nigeria’s fuel importation also hit over N4 trillion during the period.
The cost of petrol importation for the period was sourced from data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)  at the weekend, while the 60 million barrels estimate came directly from the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote.

In July, at the West African Refined Fuel Conference in Abuja, Dangote revealed that his company’s monthly import of crude oil had risen to between 9 million to 10 million barrels from the US and other countries. “As we speak today, we buy 9–10 million barrels of crude monthly from the US and other countries,” he said at the event.
The development remains a paradox and contradiction of sorts, as the challenge of capital flight in the downstream oil sector, which local refining was meant to resolve, remains far from over.

According to the NBS data, the country spent N2.3 trillion on petrol imports in Q2, 2025 as against N1.76 trillion recorded in Q1 this year, bringing the half-year total spending on importation of the product to about N4.06 trillion.
During Q2, petrol was among the top five most imported commodities nationwide, followed by durum wheat, gas oil, crude petroleum oils, and cane sugar for refineries, the data showed.

Nigeria has struggled to supply crude oil consistently to the Dangote Refinery, largely due to production constraints and market dynamics. Persistent underproduction has left the country unable to meet both export obligations and domestic refinery demand.

At the same time, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), which controls much of the crude, often prioritises foreign exchange–yielding exports over local allocation. This situation has forced the Dangote Refinery, despite its promise to end fuel imports, to source crude from international markets.
But when other fuels are added, for Q2 alone, Nigeria’s import of ‘mineral fuels’ was N4.42 trillion, representing 28.95 per cent of total imports for the period. This was followed by machinery and transport equipment with N4.33 trillion or 28.38 per cent of total imports and chemicals and related products with N2.46 trillion or 16.10 per cent of total imports.

Using the Standard International Trade Classification, the top-ranked group imports were mineral fuels with N4,426.16 billion representing 28.95 per cent of total imports, this was followed by machinery and transport equipment with N4,338.91 billion or 28.38 per cent of total imports and chemicals & related products with N2.461.32 billion (16.10 per cent of total imports),” the data showed.
Mineral fuels, as used in Nigeria’s trade reports, according to THISDAY checks, are a category of fossil-based energy products. They cover refined petroleum products such as petrol, diesel, kerosene and aviation fuel, as well as natural gas, among others.

The aspiration of Nigeria when the Dangote refinery was being built remains largely unmet. The operationalisation of the 650,000 bpd facility was expected to quickly end the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.
From the outset, the project was promoted as the solution to Nigeria’s long-standing paradox of being a major crude oil producer that nevertheless spent billions annually importing refined fuels. The refinery was meant to guarantee self-sufficiency, stabilise fuel prices, conserve foreign exchange, and even position Nigeria as a net exporter of refined products in Africa.

However, the aspiration has so far remained somewhat unfulfilled. Instead of achieving immediate energy independence, the refinery itself has had to import crude oil due to supply and pricing challenges in the domestic market. At the same time, Nigeria’s overall fuel import has continued, showing that the promise of ending fuel imports has not yet been fully realised.

Also, analysis by commodities showed that the main commodities exported to African countries in the quarter under review were petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, with crude valued at N1.26 trillion, accounting for 42.49 per cent of total exports to Africa.
Kerosine type jet fuel accounted for N408.76 billion or 13.78 per cent; gas oil exported to African countries was N404.00 billion or 13.62 per cent, while other residues of petroleum oils valued at N157.51 billion or 5.31 per cent was exported within Africa.

Also, the NBS data indicated that by mode of transport, most commodities exported out of Nigeria were done by sea in Q2 of 2025, with maritime transport accounting for N22.5 trillion or 98.93 per cent of total exports during the period.
During the period, export trade was moved through the Apapa Port, with goods valued at N17.93 trillion or 78.83 per cent of total exports, the NBS data stressed. This was followed by Lekki Deep Sea Port, with a value of N2.4 trillion or 10.58 per cent of total export.

Besides, import analysis revealed that Apapa Port also recorded the highest number of transactions valued at N6.96 trillion or 45.56 per cent of total imports, followed by Lekki Deep Sea Port which accounted for goods valued at N2.51 trillion or 16.44 per cent.
In the same vein, Tin Can island Port had N1.97 trillion or 12.90 per cent of total imports, according to the NBS data under review.

However, this dominance of ports in Lagos, creates bottlenecks, including congestion on access roads, overstretched port facilities, and delays that increase the cost of doing business. The reliance on these two Lagos ports also exposes the economy to risks of disruption, whether from strikes, insecurity, or operational breakdowns.
Although long delayed, government efforts to decongest and diversify Nigeria’s port system, including expansion in Onne, Port Harcourt, Calabar, and Lekki Deep Seaport are aimed at reducing the overdependence on Apapa and Tin Can.

In the same period, air transport accounted for N114.02 billion or 0.50 per cent, whereas road transport accounted for N40.55 billion or 0.18 per cent.
Other transport channels recorded N88.29 billion or 0.39 per cent, the report released at the weekend said. Nigeria’s total export for the quota was N22.75 trillion.
Similarly, maritime transport accounted for N14.4 trillion or 94.64 per cent of the value of total imports, the data indicated, while air transport accounted for goods valued at N714 billion or 4.67 per cent.  Road transport accounted for N105.83 billion or 0.69 per cent of import during the period under consideration.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production slumped to a five-month low of 1.43 million barrels per day in August, new data from the international oil cartel has indicated.
However, the OPEC figures, made available in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September, do not include condensate, which although has the same quality as crude oil, is excluded from its calculations of members’ contribution by OPEC.

For context Nigeria’s condensate production was roughly 204,000 bpd in July when the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) last released its output data. The data for August is still being awaited.

The last time Nigeria’s OPEC production was closest to the August output was in March when oil production was 1.4 million bpd, while in April, it shot up to 1.48 million bpd and then 1.45 million bpd in May, 1.5 million bpd in June and 1.5 million bpd in July.

Available information showed that although oil production has significantly increased, Nigeria has only been able to meet its OPEC quota three times this year. These were in January, June, and July 2025.

Further analysis of the OPEC MOMR report showed that the production figure represented a 4.7 per cent decline month-to-month. The data used by OPEC was derived from direct communication with the Nigerian authorities.

However, despite the fall in production, Nigeria sustained its position as Africa’s leading oil producer, surpassing Libya, which recorded an output of 1.38 million bpd; Algeria with 947,000 bpd and Congo with an output of 271,000 bpd.

Also, OPEC said the country’s oil production in August fell below the country’s assigned quota of 1.5 million bpd.

But taking into consideration data from its secondary sources, OPEC put Nigeria’s crude production at 1.54 million bpd in August, which is a 0.15 per cent drop from the 1.55 million bpd recorded in July from the same information channel.

Nigeria has an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million bpd  (plus condensate) built around a crude oil price benchmark of $75 dollars per barrel in its 2025 budget. A decline in either production or price below these levels has significant economic consequences.

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