Kayode Tokede

Analysts have expressed that the Nigerian  stock market is expected to trade positive this week, as investors continued to price in the potential repercussions of the proposed federal government 2026 Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on portfolio valuations.

The policy uncertainty triggered widespread panic last week Tuesday on the Nigerian stock market, culminating in a historic single-session decline of 5.01 per cent, the steepest daily loss in several years.

Sentiment, however, stabilised after the government hinted at a possible review of the tax proposal, helping the market record its first positive close for November  2025 midweek as bargain hunters and institutional players cautiously re-entered the market.

As the stock market closed for trading last week, the Nigerian Exchange Limited All-Share Index (NGX ASI) depreciated by 1.68 per cent week-on-week to close at 147,013.59 basis points. In the same vein, the total market capitalisation shed N1.50 trillion to close at N93.501trillion.

Consequently, the NGX ASI month-to-date and year-to-date returns settled lower at -4.6 per cent and +42.8 per cent, respectively

Meanwhile, sectoral performance was mixed, as the NGX Insurance Index added 2.4 per cent, NGX Banking Index advanced 1.3 per cent , and NGX Consumer Goods Index gained 0.5 per cent, while the NGX Industrial Goods  Index down by seven per cent as the NGX Oil & Gas index remained unchanged.

Analysts at Cordros Research said it expected a mixed but mildly positive performance as investors stabilise positions following recent volatility. “Furthermore, we anticipate that the release of October inflation data—where we expect further disinflation—will reinforce expectations of a rate cut later this month, thereby supporting overall market sentiment,” they added.

On market outlook, analysts at Afrinvest Limited said, “we expect a positive trading performance next week buoyed by the mid-week recovery on the back of clarity regarding CGT policy reforms.”

Imperial Asset Mangers Limited noted that, “we anticipate a highly cautious start to the next trading week, as buying conviction has clearly waned following the week’s initial rebound. The index is likely to trade defensively in a narrow range, but the overall market tone will be defensive.”

Cowry Asset Management Limited stated that “with sector leadership rotating rapidly, liquidity shifting toward institutional blocks, and technical indicators flashing overextended conditions, the market sits at an inflection point. Although the ASI remains up 42.58 per cent year-to-date, the underlying tone is cautious, and near-term direction will depend on whether the current rotation broadens or fizzles out.

“Heading into next week, we expect tempered activity as investors weigh year-end profit-taking against evolving macro cues. Key catalysts include the October 2025 inflation print and the November MPC decision, both of which will shape expectations around interest rates, liquidity conditions, and equity risk premium. While macro stability and improved sentiment offer a layer of support, momentum is likely to stay soft with a mild bearish bias, unless a significant upside trigger restores conviction across the boards.”

Meanwhile, market breadth closed positive, with 480 gainers against 45 decliners. NCR Nigeria led the gainers table by 32.30 per cent to close at N25.60, per share. Aso Savings & Loans followed with a gain of 14.44 per cent to close at N1.03, while Champion Breweries went up by 11.54 per cent to close to N14.50, per share.

On the other side, Union Dicon Salt led the decliners table by 18.71 per cent to close at N6.30, per share. Austin Laz & Company followed with a loss of 18.62 per cent to close at N2.36, while Multiverse Mining and Exploration declined by 14.47 per cent to close at N10.05, per share.

Overall, a total turnover 7.325 billion shares worth N156.425 billion in 134,383 deals was traded last week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.575 billion shares valued at N107.011 billion that exchanged hands prior week in 146,429 deals.