Analysts Caution Nigeria Risks FTSE Setback if Capital Gains Tax Proceeds

Nume Ekeghe

Financial experts have warned that Nigeria could jeopardise its fragile progress towards regaining inclusion in the FTSE Frontier Market Index if it proceeds with implementation of the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on securities transactions.

They stated that while the recent FTSE Russell “Quality of Markets” Review acknowledged notable improvements in transparency and liquidity within Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) market, introducing a new tax regime at this stage could reverse those gains and erode investors’ confidence, particularly at a time when the country was seeking to re-establish its credibility with global index providers and portfolio investors.

Head of Financial Institutions Ratings at Agusto & Co., Mr. Ayokunle Olubunmi, explained that although the capital gains tax was not entirely new in Nigeria, its economic impact will depend largely on how the policy was executed.

According to him, “The capital gains tax is not that new in Nigeria. However, the impact will depend on how this new tax law is implemented.

“We should also note that the capital gains tax will only apply when the profit from the sale of equity instruments exceeds N150 million.

“Hence, only big-ticket transactions will be impacted, with most retail equity sales excluded. It is also important to note that the tax will be waived if the proceeds are reinvested in another equity instrument.

“Given that only sizable transactions will be affected by the capital gains tax, we anticipate an uptick in tax planning when large equity positions are sold.”

A senior market analyst, who preferred not to be named, said, “Today is not the day for capital gains tax. Pushing CGT now risks undoing the fragile progress we have made and could easily downgrade one of the few areas we actually passed in the FTSE review taxation. It is not a trophy we can afford to lose.”

The analyst explained that the journey back to the FTSE Frontier Index and eventually the MSCI Emerging Market Index will depend not just on announcing reforms but also on demonstrating credible, sustained results.

“If we are serious about getting re-included, it is not just about reforms on paper; it’s about showing the world that our market can function efficiently, transparently, and predictably,” he said.

He stated that while Nigeria’s FX market reforms under the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had improved liquidity and restored some level of confidence, governance and investor protection remained critical weak spots.

“Minority shareholders are still treated like distant relatives – welcome, but rarely respected. Our laws look fine on paper, but enforcement is inconsistent,” he added.

The FTSE review also cited Nigeria’s “restricted” score on shareholder protection and deficiencies in market infrastructure, such as post-trade allocation, securities lending, and derivatives trading – tools analysts said were essential for modern market efficiency.

“Without derivatives and securities lending, our market is like a smartphone without internet – it works, but no serious investor wants to use it,” the analyst added.

He further pointed to operational inefficiencies in Nigeria’s clearing and settlement systems, which remained mostly at T+3, compared to T+2 or T+1 standards globally.

“Clearing and settlement may not be glamorous, but to investors, they are everything. A market that cannot settle efficiently is a market that carries unnecessary risk,” he said.

On governance, the analyst criticised the slow pace of regulatory coordination between Nigerian Exchange (NGX), Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS), and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), stating that market development is being held back by bureaucracy.

He added, “The NGX owns 40 percent of CSCS and chairs its board, so responsibility for market plumbing cannot be deflected. Extending trading hours to 4pm, enabling instant share unblocking, and implementing post-trade allocation should not take years of debate.”

He also highlighted the imbalance between regulators and market operators, warning that high transaction fees and compliance costs are suffocating brokers, the key intermediaries that sustain market liquidity.

“A market where regulators make more than operators is dysfunctional. Brokers are not middlemen; they are the engine oil. If they dry up, the system grinds to a halt,” he said.

Despite the challenges, analysts acknowledged that Nigeria had made progress since its 2023 downgrade, citing CBN’s efforts to clear FX backlogs and unify exchange rates.

But they insisted that policy consistency was critical to maintaining momentum.

The analyst concluded, “The FTSE report is harsh but not unfair, it’s a mirror showing us exactly what must change. Until Nigeria fixes its market infrastructure, protects investors, and maintains predictable taxation, one phrase will continue to define our standing in global markets: Not Met.”

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    Religious Leaders Reject US’ Claim of Genocide Against Nigerian Christians

    Religious Leaders Reject US’ Claim of Genocide Against Nigerian Christians

    •US officials in Nigeria say initial findings show both faiths impacted 

    •CAN warns against designating Nigeria ‘Country of Special Concern’

    •Says it will lead to suffering, leeway for terrorists to operate   

    •JNI, MURIC, others insist killers should be treated as criminals

    •Pantami narrates how he, other Muslim leaders were included in assassination list

    Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

    In a rare development in Nigeria’s multifaceted, multi-religious and multi-ethnic society, Christians and Muslims yesterday rejected the claim by some prominent United States officials that there is an ongoing genocide  against Christians in Nigeria.

    Decrying it as a misconception, the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) in the north as well as the Jama’atu Nasril Islam (JNI), the umbrella group for the Nigerian Muslim community as well as the Muslim Rights Concern (MURIC) stated that the killers should be regarded as criminals who have no preference for any religious sect.

    They dismissed the United States’ recent classification of attacks by terrorists in the country as “genocide,” describing the claim as exaggerated and capable of deepening divisions in an already fragile nation.

    According to CAN, JNI and MURIC, while violent attacks on religious communities are tragic and unacceptable, the situation in Nigeria is far more complex than the US report suggests, explaining that attributing the crisis solely to religion ignores the underlying causes such as poverty, banditry, and political manipulation.

    CAN Chairman in the 19 northern states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Reverend Joseph Hayab, described the insurgents as ‘divide and rule’ individuals, explaining that apart from the significant attacks on Christians in the early days of insurgency, it is now a war against the entire country and not solely against a particular religious belief.

    “What we find strange is the exaggeration of the figure (of casualties). The figure that is being played around is an exaggeration, it is outrageous. We don’t understand that. These terrorists, when they started, eventually moved beyond just killing Christians and started killing virtually everybody. And they have continued with that.

    “Fortunately for us, in the last two years, the development has started changing. Because in  Kaduna, I remember that between 2016 to 2023 May, I was practically burying either 20, 30, 50 people per week or per month. But there’s a shift because of the ongoing efforts of going after the terrorists. And I have forgotten the last time, I can say that in the last 12 months or probably 16 months, I have not buried anybody apart from those who died naturally,” Hayab stated.

    The CAN’s top official kicked against calls to put Nigeria on the list of ‘countries of particular concern’ by the US, stressing that if the United States wanted to protect the common man, no such decision should be made.

    “When you put Nigeria in the country of particular concern, at this time, you’re simply saying terrorists, go and have your way and destroy them. So, the common people you claim you want to protect, you’re no longer thinking about them because you will deny our military from getting arms across the world. And once they don’t have arms, the terrorists will just be  free to kill virtually everybody.

    “So, there’s nothing that warrants that at this moment. But killings have happened. No one should deny that. And I’ve always told people who care to listen, the reason that we have reached where we are was the denial of  yesterday,” the religious leader said.

    Hayab disclosed that the terrorists even go after certain Muslims who refuse to associate with their extremism, emphasising that the killings cut across and are not particularly focused on Christians.

    “Two mosques have been attacked in the last two months in Katsina. So, we have an issue, a serious problem with terrorists that started with Christians, now they are going everywhere. Why don’t we join hands to push them where they belong?, he queried.

    As someone from Kaduna, he highlighted the success recorded so far, stressing that the Abuja-Kaduna road was a death trap as recently as 2023, but that the situation was changing.

    Also speaking at the meeting which was convened by public commentator, Reno Omokri, Islamic thought leaders in Nigeria led by Jama‘atu Nasril Islam (JNI) Secretary General, Prof. Aliyu Abubakar, thanked the US delegation for attempting to hear all the sides to the Nigerian story.

    “Without hearing from the other side,  it really was a baffling thing, and we’re really very surprised. The US, the leader of democracy and freedom of speech, without hearing from both sides, a decision was taken,” he lamented.

    He dismissed the insinuation that the terrorists were killing on behalf of Islam, stressing that there was no plan to exterminate or obliterate Christianity. “It’s an act of criminality. And we can never get it right until we stop linking it to any religious group. Crime is a crime. Criminality is criminality. It has no bound, it has no colour, it has no religion,” he argued.

    Also speaking, a cyber security expert and former Minister of Communication, Prof Isa Pantami,  stressed that people claiming to be Muslims, perpetrating the insecurity in the North, like Boko Haram, have in the past  issued  death threats to many Islamic scholars, including himself.

    “They had a list of scholars to eliminate when they started fighting. My name was number one. And this is as early as 2009. Why? Because I debated their late leader Muhammad Yusuf on their ideology, and with the support of the Almighty God, I defeated him.

    ‘’If you watch the debate for almost six hours. Before then, Sheikh Jafar, a respected Islamic scholar, graduate of the University of Madinah, Saudi Arabia, was eliminated. Sheikh Muhammad Awal Albani, a respected scholar, was also eliminated, in addition to so many scholars. These are  people claiming to be doing it for Islam. In February 2022, their late leader was on air, including BBC, commanding his followers to eliminate me.

    “If they are doing it for Islam, why would they go to BBC to say that I must be eliminated, because I am a threat to their ideology, because we challenge their ideology, that this ideology is un-Islamic and is not representing the position of Islam.

    “So this is to show you that the criminality is not about religion. It is criminal  in general. And this criminality is affecting Muslims, Christians and others. All these religion’s adherents are being killed under this criminality. So there is no justification whatsoever for anyone to claim that it is an ideology,” Pantami maintained.

    He stated that rather than point fingers, Nigerians must come together to fight the menacing insecurity, highlighting how Muslims who were praying in Katsina were killed recently.

    In his remarks, MURIC’s Prof. Ishaq Akintola described the US’ position as “misrepresentation, misinformation and disinformation, adding that there is nothing like deliberate religion-related killing of Christians or Muslims.

    “Muslims are not killing Christians. What is happening is, it’s basically economic warfare. People are hungry. People are jobless. People are desperate. And the idle hand, they say, is the devil’s workshop,” he pointed out.

    For instance, he said the problem in the North Central, especially in Benue and Plateau, were largely ethnic clashes between herdsmen and farmers, maintaining that it’s been there for decades.

    Earlier, the US officials, including the the erstwhile Mayor of Blanco, Mike Arnold, a campaigner for religious freedom and an associate of US Senator, Ted Cruz, who has been pushing the agenda that Christians were being specifically targeted in Nigeria, noted that his preliminary findings showed that both religions were significantly impacted by the attacks.

    Arnold told THISDAY that his fact-finding mission revealed that Christians were mostly affected in Christian populated areas, while Muslim were impacted in majority of areas, where believers of Islam were frequently attacked by the terrorists and bandits.

    “I still have multiple meetings with very important people.  My main passion and calling is to serve…The tales of trauma and escape and survival are chilling. And for 10 years, they’ve been in this camp. That’s all they have. That’s where they were told to stay, but no assistance, no aid, they are called criminals and beggars. These are people that were productive, school principals and people like that had everything taken away.

    “And now they have nothing, and there’s no way out. And they get bulldozed. I mean, it’s inconceivable. I’m intentionally keeping an open mind on some things because I’m here to find facts,” he stated, but noted that from the camps he visited, but Muslims and Christians were affected.

    Also speaking, author,  Omokri, stated that Nigerians were upset about the insinuations that the killings were motivated by religion, stressing that many people feel it’s a plan to undermine Nigeria, especially after the Vice President, Kashim Shettima, recently spoke at the United Nations General Assembly about Nigeria’s position on the Gaza problem.

    “And Senator Ted Cruz is not an evil man. Senator Ted Cruz is a person that means well for Nigeria. He’s a person that means well for the Christian community. Governor Greg Abbott is also a Christian and he means well for the Christian community. However, they do not understand the issues.

    “And because they don’t understand the issues, I decided to invite someone that is a personal friend of Senator Ted Cruz. He briefed Senator Ted Cruz before he came and someone that is personally known to Governor Abbott and us as well as a filmmaker to come here and visit IDP camps”, Reno Omokri stated.

    He stated that after visiting some IDP camps, there was a consensus that both Christians and Muslims were equally being attacked.

    “One of the things that might surprise the American public is that in the IDP camps, they found Muslims and they found Christians and in some cases, more Muslims than Christians,” Omokri said.

    In the same vein, an American film maker, Jeff Gibbs, decried the sufferings that IDPs were subjected to, but noted that he has observed that all religions were represented in the camps. “One camp is almost fully Christian. When we go to Durumi, it’s a different environment. Almost fully Muslim,” he stated.

    ​  

    •US officials in Nigeria say initial findings show both faiths impacted  •CAN warns against designating Nigeria ‘Country of Special Concern’ •Says it will lead to suffering, leeway for terrorists to

    Rewane: Nigeria’s Economic Recovery Tangible, Rooted in Fiscal Consolidation, Sectoral Resilience

    Rewane: Nigeria’s Economic Recovery Tangible, Rooted in Fiscal Consolidation, Sectoral Resilience

    •We subjected NBS data to both empirical and anecdotal tests, investors, analysts’ view data as mostly genuine

    Dike Onwuamaeze

    Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC), Mr. Bismarck Rewane, has stated that Nigeria’s current economic recovery appears to be real and increasingly tangible.

    Rewane made the declaration in his October 2025 presentation at the LBS Breakfast Session, titled, “Reality Check: Is Nigeria’s Economic Recovery Authentic? Yes, It Is.”

    He stated that the current recovery was “rooted in fiscal consolidation, declining inflation, and sectoral resilience”. 

    According to him, after several quarters of negative news, data volatility and conflicting trends, “The Nigerian economy appears to be entering a steady state of recovery and credible expansion.”

    He said the current recovery was characterised by improvements in key economic indicators, such as GDP growth, inflation stabilisation, employment rate, as well as increased business and consumer confidence.

    He pointed out that data recently released by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed a 4.23 per cent real GDP growth for Q2’25, which was higher than Sub-Saharan Africa’s average and represented a fifth consecutive decline in headline inflation, to 20.12 per cent.

    The NBS data also showed a consistent rise in gross external reserves to $43 billion, and a 3.7 per cent appreciation of the naira from N1,541/$ to N1,484/$ in September 2025.

    Rewane stated, “At FDC, we subjected the data to both empirical and anecdotal tests. The overwhelming views of investors and analysts were that the data was mostly genuine and that the trend was consistent with regional and global patterns.

    “Data integrity notwithstanding, the consensus was that the recovery was slow but sustainable.”

    He described economic recovery as the phase in the economic cycle when an economy began to grow again after a period of recession or economic downturn, and was characterised by GDP growth, inflation stabilisation, employment rates and increased business and consumer confidence.

    He commented that following periods of economic contraction or downturns, Nigeria’s economy often stabilised slowly at the bottom but in some cases, the recovery was aborted while in others it gradually resumed a path of long-term growth.

    He said currently economic recovery was showing promising signs as the “recovery is close to dynamic equilibrium and key economic variables are stablising, both consumer and investors’ confidence are increasing and the GDP growth reaching a four-year high at 4.23 per cent”. 

    In addition, exchange rate misalignment changed as the gap between the parallel and official window narrowed to N24.

    Rewane stated, “Unlike past recoveries, this recovery is different. It is not just about growth; some fundamentals are changing.”

    Yet, he said there were potential risks and pitfalls that could threaten the recovery. These pitfalls included sharp drop in oil price to $60 per barrel, foreign portfolio investment reversal, market and price distortions, as well as power sector deficits.

    He also pointed out that the rising cost of governance today, which had risen from N27.7 billion in 1998 to N54.99 trillion today “is a major impediment to capital accumulation and investment in critical projects, especially when compared to the leaner government expenditure during military rule”.

    He added that total public debt grew from $28.7 billion in Q1’98 to $97.24bn in Q1’25.

    “For the recovery to be sustainable there is an urgent need to reduce the cost of governance,” Rewane said.

    He also recommended power sector debt forbearance, incentive for domestic investments, improved tax collection under the new tax law, concessioning of airports and seaports, and selling government-owned refineries.

    ​  

    •We subjected NBS data to both empirical and anecdotal tests, investors, analysts’ view data as mostly genuine Dike Onwuamaeze Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC), Mr. Bismarck

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