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Afrinvest West Africa Limited has expressed that more than two years into the President Bola Tinubu’s led-administration, Nigeria has yet to find a clear pathway to achieving the $1trillion economy target by 2031.
This was disclosed in the firm’s 20th Nigerian Banking Sector Report titled, “ACT-BOLD: Beyond a Trillion-Dollar Economy,” unveiled in Lagos as part of Afrinvest’s 30th anniversary celebrations.
The firm noted that the $1trillion valuation within eight years (to 2031) vision is predicated on broad-based reforms in both fiscal and monetary policy.
The report noted that, “Instead, recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) – based on the newly published rebased GDP figures – reveals a sobering reality: nearly half of the economy’s size in 2022 ($478.0billion) has been eroded by a mix of external shocks and self-inflicted economic disruptions.
“While many of the administration’s announced reforms appear sound in principle and could, in theory, lay the groundwork for transformative growth, critical enablers to translate these reforms into measurable results are missing from the playbook.”
The firm noted that in its 2023 BSR: “Getting Nigeria to Work Again!”, it had warned that policy blueprints such as the PAC report are unlikely to deliver high-impact results without deep institutional reforms.
“This position was informed by a root-cause analysis of why prior reform programmes fell short. Two years in, the same institutional weaknesses remain – hampering implementation capacity and diluting the potential gains of announced reforms.
“As a result of these enduring structural frailties, Nigeria’s economy continues to exhibit growth- retarding characteristics: insecurity, especially in agrarian communities, limiting agricultural productivity; large-scale oil theft, eroding vital export revenues; fiscal opacity, reducing public trust and investor confidence; public sector extravagance, diverting resources from development priorities, and gross impunity, undermining the rule of law and account- ability. These constraints exist in an economy that is, in reality, resource-constrained and should be optimising every available lever to achieve growth targets,” the report stated.
Afrinvest in the report disclosed that inmid-2023, Argentina stood in a similar macroeconomic position to Nigeria, stating that in less than two years of President Javier Milei’s tenure, the country has recorded more significant turnaround – faster Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth (5.8 per cent), resilient per capita GDP ($14,360) and faster disinflation momentum (56 per cent from 127 per cent) relative to Nigeria with -4.7 per cent, $835, and 22 per cent (from 22.1 per cent) on these metrics.
“This highlights the role of consistent execution, institutional discipline, and decisive leadership in economic recovery,” the report explained.
The report urged that, “To close these gaps and reposition Nigeria for a leap forward (notably, the $1.0trillon economy size target), we propose that the administration adopt the philosophical mantra of “ACT-BOLD” – a framework for reengineering Nigeria’s economic fortunes through decisive, transparent, and reform-driven governance.
“Central to this recommendation is the need to prioritise accelerated growth in the seven high-impact sectors captured below, leveraging recommended policy imperatives to catalyse Nigeria into a new frontier of accelerated, inclusive, and sustainable growth.”
The report, however, projected that Nigeria will require an average annual GDP growth of about 21.95 per cent, alongside an exchange rate of N1,500 to the dollar, in order to hit the government’s ambitious $1 trillion economy target by 2031.
While acknowledging the optimism of President Tinubu’s administration that the banking sector will play a central role in driving the target, Afrinvest cautioned that structural challenges must be addressed. “Otherwise, banks may only deliver narrow gains across a few service-based industries, leaving overall economic growth subdued,” it stated.
The report also examined recent monetary policy moves, noting that under Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, benchmark interest rates were raised by 875 basis points to 27.5 per cent between February and November 2024, a policy shift aimed at stabilising inflation, strengthening the naira, and restoring investor confidence.
On banking sector recapitalisation, Afrinvest revealed that lenders have collectively raised over N2.5 trillion through rights issues, public offers and private placements by mid-2025. Access Corporation, Zenith Bank, Ecobank and Lotus Bank were identified as having already met the new capital thresholds ahead of the June 2026 deadline, while other institutions continue to explore mergers and acquisitions to stay compliant.
According to the firm, the financial services sector has remained resilient, expanding by 15 per cent in real terms in the first quarter of 2025, ranking among the top 10 contributors to national GDP.
Speaking at the launch, Afrinvest Group Managing Director, Dr. Ike Chioke, reflected on the company’s 30-year journey, describing it as one of “resilience, innovation and leadership” shaped by decades of global and domestic economic shifts.
He recalled key turning points, including Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, the 2004–2005 banking reforms, the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, the 2014 oil price collapse, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Chioke emphasised that since its first publication in 2006, the Banking Sector Report has remained a trusted guide for policymakers, investors and financial institutions. “The 20th edition is both a call to action and a framework for Nigeria’s growth,” he said.
Afrinvest Chairman, Donald Lawson—represented by Professor Osita Ogbu of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka—noted that the organisation’s success is a story of “vision, courage and adaptability,” adding that Afrinvest’s growth from a single office in Lagos to five major cities across Nigeria reflects a legacy of innovation and resilience.
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