Hot Source
The interplay of AI, algorithms and elections is the new battlefield of democracy, contends SONNY IROCHE
As the countdown toward the 2027 general elections in Nigeria, the stakes could not be higher. At the same time that the country grapples with entrenched challenges, from pervasive corruption to infrastructural decay, youth unemployment to weak institutions, a tidal wave of technological disruption is gathering force: the age of artificial intelligence (AI) and algorithmic influence. The question for Nigeria is straightforward but profound: can the country navigate this new terrain skilfully and pivot from a “third-world” mindset into a credible, capable leader of Africa, in governance, in economy and in democratic integrity?
Around the world, elections are increasingly contested not just in polling booths but deep in the invisible guts of algorithms, data‐drives and AI-enabled influence operations. A recent analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice warns: “Artificial intelligence didn’t disrupt the 2024 election, but the effects are likely to be greater in the future.”
In the United Kingdom and Europe the infamous Cambridge Analytica saga remains a warning. The consultancy harvested millions of Facebook profiles, and its work has been linked to both the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and the Brexit referendum in the UK. In Nigeria, too, the spectre of Cambridge Analytica looms large: whistle-blowers say that in the 2015 presidential election the firm tried to influence outcomes by creating Islamophobic videos targeting a candidate.
More recently, in the U.S., the role of Elon Musk, his ownership of the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), and the explosion of AI-enabled misinformation have provoked concern. Reuters reported that “false or misleading claims” by Musk about the U.S. election amassed 2 billion views on X. While there is no verified proof that Musk or his companies manipulated votes via satellite or ballots, fact-checks emphatically deny that his firm’s Starlink network “rigged” the 2023 U.S. election. But the perception, the algorithmic power, the coordination of bots, deepfakes, and targeted micro-campaigns all suggest that elections now mean far more than polling stations.
In short: Nigeria must assume that the 2027 elections will be fought as much in data-clouds, recommendation engines and algorithmic feed walls as in the real world.
What this means for Nigeria in 2027
That brings Nigeria squarely into the centre of a global problem, and opportunity. With nearly 220 million people, a youthful population, recurring allegations of electoral fraud, and emerging digital infrastructure, Nigeria is vulnerable and ripe for disruption. It is also, conversely, well-positioned to lead.
Here are some of the specific dimensions:
One, Algorithmic influence, social media and misinformation. As Nigeria increasingly digitises, social media algorithms will shape what Nigerians see, from campaign messaging to deepfake attacks. The research on AI-enabled influence operations highlights that adversaries can use generative AI, botnets, and coordinated accounts to shape sentiment.
Two, Real-time results, transparency and trust. The push for “live” collated vote counts, online results, and open dashboards will matter. The U.S., for example, has made election integrity a high priority, and if Nigeria is designated a “Country of Particular Concern” by the United States Department of State (as reports suggest) then Washington will insist on credible systems and visible transparency.
Three, External influence and diplomacy. With reports that the U.S. has renewed interest in Nigeria, both for regional stability and as a strategic partner in Africa, the Nigerian judiciary, electoral commission and diplomatic service will all be under a scrutiny. This does not necessarily mean neocolonial interference, but it does raise the stakes for Nigeria being seen to clean up governance and reliably deliver a free and fair election.
Four, Domestic reform and preparedness. For the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), and the opposition, now is the time to engage the frustrated populace, rebuild trust, and set the terms for 2027. If they wait, the technologies and public anger may converge in ways that are destabilising.
But Nigeria’s election vulnerabilities are just one slice of the broader challenge. To be recognised as the true leader of Africa, Nigeria must embark on a multi-front transformation. Below are some critical steps.
Corruption and governance: President Bola Tinubu has roughly 18 months to warm the hearts of Nigerians via visible action. This means prosecuting pending corruption cases investigated by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); implementing the recommendations of the Steve Orasanye Committee Report to reduce the behemoth size of government; and auditing government appointments for competence and capability rather than patronage.
Federalism and constitutional reform: Nigeria must move decisively to devolve power further to the states, and revisit the 2014 National Conference report to repudiate the flawed 1999 Constitution (as amended). A modern constitution that accommodates Nigeria’s diversity and enables local autonomy is key.
Technology, AI and procurement: Nigeria’s 2024 National AI Strategy Committee laid good groundwork. But implementation must begin now: using AI and technology to improve procurement transparency, contract award, citizen service delivery and public sector efficiency. That would enable leap-frogging into digital governance.
Diplomacy and representation: It is time to professionalise Nigeria’s foreign service: appoint more career diplomats and fewer political appointees; perhaps a ratio of 60 % career diplomats to 40 % political ambassadors in our embassies and high commissions abroad. That would reflect a nation growing confident and credible on the global stage.
Youth employment and human capital: With the world’s second‐largest youth population, Nigeria must invest aggressively in education, technical skills, and sectors such as health, agriculture, research and exports. Diversifying away from crude oil is essential to avoid the classic resource-curse.
Infrastructure, power and agriculture: Boosting crude-oil production is short-term only. Medium- to long-term Nigeria must ramp up electricity generation and distribution, build key infrastructure (roads, rail, ports), invest in research and export foods or manufactured goods that meet international standards, and thereby compete globally.
Social cohesion and rule of law: Ethnic tensions and polarization remain a drag on national development. Improving the “Feel-Good Index” of Nigeria, lowering inflation, enabling affordable livelihoods, strengthening security and ensuring that the judicial system is independent and credible, will signal seriousness.
Let’s return to the 2027 elections and ask: what role might AI-driven algorithms play, how should Nigeria guard against risks, and how can it use the opportunity?
Targeted micro-campaigning: Just as Cambridge Analytica purportedly used voter profiling and tailored messaging, Nigerians may see deep profiling of voters via social media platforms, AI chatbots reaching communities, even voice-bots mimicking trusted leaders. The research shows generative AI and bots can “spread low-credibility content” and “automated accounts accelerate early viral spread of misinformation.”
Deepfakes and synthetic media: The technology of deepfakes is now commoditised. Reports warn that generative AI can generate synthetic identities, voices, videos, tailored to exploit a low‐trust environment like Nigeria’s.
Algorithmic manipulation of social platforms: The case of Elon Musk’s X is telling. Researchers worried that when Musk took over Twitter, “researchers and elections officials feared a rampant spread of misinformation that would lead to threats and harassment and undermine democracy.” French prosecutors are now investigating X for “tampering with the functioning of an automated data processing system” (i.e., recommendation algorithm) and “fraudulent extraction of data”. While there is no smoking-gun of Musk’s company altering elections in Nigeria, the potential is real. The lesson: Nigeria must assume that global actors, platforms and algorithmic systems will play a role, and plan accordingly.
Real-time vote-counting and transparency via technology: Nigeria must use technology to ensure that vote-collection, collation, tabulation and result-dissemination are transparent, auditable and visible. The U.S. interest in Nigeria’s election integrity (as a “Country of Particular Concern”) means that any systemic weakness will attract international attention, and risk external influence or reputational damage.
External diplomatic and judicial implications: The U.S. may say it is not interfering in Nigeria’s internal affairs, but if it flags Nigeria’s judicial systems, electoral commission (Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC) or electronic systems as deficient, Nigeria will be under pressure. The judiciary, for instance, must be seen as independent, credible and free of manipulation. The accusation of U.S. “interference” can easily be deflected, so long as Nigeria takes internal ownership.
Concrete suggestions for 2027: Here are specific actions to adopt in the short and medium term:
• Begin now public-education campaigns about digital literacy, algorithmic manipulation, deepfakes and misinformation. Don’t wait until the campaign season.
• Upgrade INEC’s digital infrastructure: ensure that data flows from polling units to state collation centres are encrypted, auditable, open to observer networks, and ideally real-time (or near real-time) publishable online.
• Enable independent audits of platform algorithms: request major social media platforms operating in Nigeria to publish transparency reports on political advertising, algorithmic targeting and micro-segments.
• Deploy AI tools in governance beyond elections: for procurement transparency, contract award, public-service delivery and corruption detection. This builds institutional resilience and trust.
• Immediately adopt the recommendations of the Steve Orasanye Committee to reduce bureaucracy, make government leaner and more efficient.
• Use the 18-month window to prosecute outstanding corruption cases publicly. A visible reckoning builds trust in institutions and sends a signal to youth: the system can work.
• Professionally overhaul Nigeria’s diplomatic corps: quality, experience and fewer “political ambassadors” who do not represent Nigeria’s strategic interests abroad.
• Diversify the economy, invest in export agriculture, manufacturing and digital services, so that Nigeria is not reliant purely on oil, which leaves it vulnerable.
• Encourage research partnerships and local production to ensure that Nigeria’s exports meet international standards, this is how you move from “resource-economy” to “innovation economy”.
• Strengthen state-level autonomy and decentralise power. When states have capacity and are accountable locally, the national system becomes stronger.
• Strengthen the rule of law, ensure ethnic tensions are addressed through inclusive governance and that the “Feel-Good Index” of Nigerians (jobs, inflation, security) improves.
Nigeria has multiple inherent strengths: a large and young population, abundant natural resources, a commanding cultural footprint in Africa (Nollywood, music, diaspora), and now a growing digital ecosystem. But leadership is not given, it is earned. By embracing AI and technology, ensuring digital integrity in elections, building credible institutions, and showing that democracy can work in Africa’s largest country, Nigeria can become the beacon.
If Nigeria delivers a clean, technology-enhanced, algorithm-aware election in 2027 and uses that momentum to reform its economy and governance, it can shift its narrative from failure and dependency to growth and export-orientation. Africa and the world will watch.
In the run-up to 2027, Nigeria stands at a crossroads. The interplay of AI, algorithms and elections is not just a technological footnote, it is the new battlefield of democracy. Nigeria’s resilience will depend on its readiness to defend its systems, engage its citizens, and embrace transparency in governance and technology. At the same time, its ambition to be Africa’s true leader depends on whether it uses this moment to reform deeply.
President Tinubu’s 18-month window is not simply about survival. It is about setting the tone for a nation that uses AI not to manipulate but to empower; that uses its software and algorithms not to control but to liberate; that shows Africa is not just a playing field for others’ algorithms but a creator, a regulator and a leader in its own right. If Nigeria can master that dual challenge, credible elections and authentic national renewal, then 2027 will not just be another cycle. It will be the turning point.
Nigeria is ready , if its leaders and people choose to be ready with it.
Iroche is CEO, GenAI Learning Concepts Ltd
and Senior Academic Fellow, African Studies Centre, University of Oxford (2022-2023)
