•We subjected NBS data to both empirical and anecdotal tests, investors, analysts’ view data as mostly genuine

Dike Onwuamaeze

Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC), Mr. Bismarck Rewane, has stated that Nigeria’s current economic recovery appears to be real and increasingly tangible.

Rewane made the declaration in his October 2025 presentation at the LBS Breakfast Session, titled, “Reality Check: Is Nigeria’s Economic Recovery Authentic? Yes, It Is.”

He stated that the current recovery was “rooted in fiscal consolidation, declining inflation, and sectoral resilience”. 

According to him, after several quarters of negative news, data volatility and conflicting trends, “The Nigerian economy appears to be entering a steady state of recovery and credible expansion.”

He said the current recovery was characterised by improvements in key economic indicators, such as GDP growth, inflation stabilisation, employment rate, as well as increased business and consumer confidence.

He pointed out that data recently released by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed a 4.23 per cent real GDP growth for Q2’25, which was higher than Sub-Saharan Africa’s average and represented a fifth consecutive decline in headline inflation, to 20.12 per cent.

The NBS data also showed a consistent rise in gross external reserves to $43 billion, and a 3.7 per cent appreciation of the naira from N1,541/$ to N1,484/$ in September 2025.

Rewane stated, “At FDC, we subjected the data to both empirical and anecdotal tests. The overwhelming views of investors and analysts were that the data was mostly genuine and that the trend was consistent with regional and global patterns.

“Data integrity notwithstanding, the consensus was that the recovery was slow but sustainable.”

He described economic recovery as the phase in the economic cycle when an economy began to grow again after a period of recession or economic downturn, and was characterised by GDP growth, inflation stabilisation, employment rates and increased business and consumer confidence.

He commented that following periods of economic contraction or downturns, Nigeria’s economy often stabilised slowly at the bottom but in some cases, the recovery was aborted while in others it gradually resumed a path of long-term growth.

He said currently economic recovery was showing promising signs as the “recovery is close to dynamic equilibrium and key economic variables are stablising, both consumer and investors’ confidence are increasing and the GDP growth reaching a four-year high at 4.23 per cent”. 

In addition, exchange rate misalignment changed as the gap between the parallel and official window narrowed to N24.

Rewane stated, “Unlike past recoveries, this recovery is different. It is not just about growth; some fundamentals are changing.”

Yet, he said there were potential risks and pitfalls that could threaten the recovery. These pitfalls included sharp drop in oil price to $60 per barrel, foreign portfolio investment reversal, market and price distortions, as well as power sector deficits.

He also pointed out that the rising cost of governance today, which had risen from N27.7 billion in 1998 to N54.99 trillion today “is a major impediment to capital accumulation and investment in critical projects, especially when compared to the leaner government expenditure during military rule”.

He added that total public debt grew from $28.7 billion in Q1’98 to $97.24bn in Q1’25.

“For the recovery to be sustainable there is an urgent need to reduce the cost of governance,” Rewane said.

He also recommended power sector debt forbearance, incentive for domestic investments, improved tax collection under the new tax law, concessioning of airports and seaports, and selling government-owned refineries.

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