•EU, UK petrol exports to Nigeria fall from 200,000 bpd to 120,000 bpd 

•Oil price eases further, slumps to two-week low

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The petrol unit at Nigeria’s 650,000 barrel-per-day Dangote refinery may be shut for between two to three months for repairs, industry monitor IIR Energy told clients on Thursday, which could lead to a tighter  market.

The unit has been shut since around August 29 after catalyst leaks, a Reuters report said yesterday. The refinery plans to attempt to restart the 204,000 bpd Residue Fluidized Catalytic Cracking Unit (RFCCU) on September 20, but major repairs and equipment replacement could keep the unit shut for months, IIR Energy said.

Reuters first reported on Wednesday that Dangote’s RFCCU was expected to be shut for at least two weeks. Dangote did not immediately respond to a request for comment to the news, the report said.

One petroleum products trader said the market for the motor fuel was already strong. “This just adds fuel to the fire,” the trader told Reuters.

The U.S. petrol futures crack spread has risen nearly 13 per cent so far this week, to its highest since August 19, while Northwest European gasoline profit margins have risen around 23 per cent to $19.31 as of Wednesday according to LSEG data, trading at their highest since late June.

Supply constraints in the market due to current and upcoming outages are enough to offset the seasonal decline in demand, noted Philip Jones-Lux, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities.

The Dangote refinery, which began processing crude in January 2024, has slashed the Europe to West petrol export trade significantly. EU and UK petrol exports to Nigeria fell from an average of about 200,000 bpd in 2024 to about 120,000 bpd in the first half of this year, according to Kpler data.

It has also shipped two petrol cargoes to the U.S. East Coast, expected to arrive in the New York area later this month, a major milestone as industry observers were closely tracking if and when the plant would produce fuel meeting U.S. standards

Meanwhile, oil prices eased about 1 per cent to a two-week low on Thursday on a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories last week and expectations that OPEC+ producers will increase output targets at a meeting this weekend.

Brent crude futures fell 65 cents, or 1.0 per cent, to settle at $66.95 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 49 cents, or 0.8 per cent, to settle at $63.48.

The U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 2.4 million barrels of crude into storage during the week ended August 29 as refineries headed into maintenance season.

Eight members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia in OPEC+ will consider further increases to production in October at a meeting on Sunday, two sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters.

A potential OPEC+ production hike would send a strong signal that regaining market share takes priority over price support, said Tamas Varga, a senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates brokerage and consulting firm.

OPEC+ has already agreed to raise output targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, in addition to a 300,000-bpd quota increase for the United Arab Emirates.

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