Dike Onwuamaeze

Analysts at Comercio Partners has projected that Nigeria’s currently competitive foreign exchange (FX) market that encourages export and discourages import would enable the country to record 70 per cent growth in Balance of Payment (BoP) in 2025 when compared to its performance in 2024.

Comercio made this projection in its H2 2025 Outlook titled, “Reconfiguration from Global Trade to Quantum Innovation: A New Era Emerges,” in which it said that the global stage is being redrawn by the emergence of a resource-based order, which is termed Bretton Wood III, where control over water, food, energy and critical minerals are eclipsing traditional financial hegemony as the cornerstone of national power.

It said: “By the end of 2025, we expect the BoP to grow around 70 per cent compared to 2024 supported by the currency (Naira) now being at a competitive rate that encourages exports and discourages imports. Additionally, savings from reduced oil importation, given Nigeria’s declining reliance on imported petroleum products, are also contributing to this improvement.”

The report added, “Nigeria’s BoP has been improving steadily. In 2024, the country recorded a BoP surplus of $6.83 billion, marking a clear turnaround from deficits of $3.34 billion in 2023 and $3.32 billion in 2022.”

It added that in Q1’25, Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $3.73 billion, which amounts to about 54 per cent of the total recorded for the entire Year 2024.

The report also said that Nigeria has enough reserves to offset its debt servicing burden in 2025.

It stated, “Looking at Nigeria’s external debt obligations, the total coupon payments for H2 2025, combined with the $1.118 billion Eurobond principal maturing in November 2025, amount to $1.813 billion.

“Given current reserve levels, this debt service burden is covered approximately 20 times over. We project external reserves to reach approximately $43 billion by year end, reflecting a 15.6 per cent increase from their end-June 2025 level.”

The report identified stable exchange rate of the Naira, rising foreign exchange inflows, and remittances and a decline in imports of oil and other goods as favourable factors driving Nigeria’s increasing foreign reserves.

It also identified repayment of Eurobond principal and interest, bearish oil prices and ongoing domestic production challenges as potential headwinds in accumulating foreign reserves.

However, Comercio stated that even though the government has positioned its reform measures as painful but necessary, it could be argued that, “they reflect a prioritisation of debt repayment over genuine economic development.”

It recalled that Nigeria completed the repayment of its $3.4 billion COVID 19 emergency facility from IMF in April 2025 but remarked that, “while the financials debt may be cleared, the social cost of that borrowing remains unpaid. Nigerians are grappling with record-high inflation, unemployment and worsening poverty levels with little relief in sight.”

Commenting on the macro-economic outlook report for H2’25, the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Comercio Partners Capital, Mr. Steve Osho, said that “We are standing on the threshold of a new economic era, one defined not only by shifts in trade dynamics but by the transformative power of innovation at quantum frontier.

“The world trade networks are undergoing profound recalibration as geopolitical tensions, supply chain realignments and digital trade growths are reshaping traditional models of doing business.”

Osho said that emerging markets are asserting greater influence, and economic resilience is increasingly leading to adaptability and calibration across borders.

“In this transformative era, we must embrace change not as a challenge, but as an innovation to innovate boldly and grow sustainably,” he said.

Also, the CEO of Comercio Partners Trading, Mr. Nnamdi Nwizu, said that the imposition of tariffs and the policy of “America First” by resident Donald Trump of the United States, has had massive impact on global trade and economy.

Nwizu said: “On the local front, the reforms initiated by the federal government seem to be working. The Naira has appreciated by circa 8.0 per cent against the dollar despite the reserve dropping by $3.5 billion as the CBN cleared the foreign exchange backlog. We have become the darling of foreign investors once again, with investments seen in Nigeria Treasury Bills and bonds.”

Speaking in the same vein, the CEO of Commercio Partners Asset Management, Mr. Tosin Osunkoya, said that the macroeconomic report is the Comercio’s contribution to providing clarity on global and Nigeria’s economy.

Osunkoya said: “It distills the economic signals shaping the year ahead both seen and emerging. From the implications of protectionist trade environments like the renewed “America First” agenda to the micro-level impacts of Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary resets, this report offers an integrated view of a world in flux and a country determined to find its footing within it.”

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