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IMF: Acknowledging CBN’s Reforms Impact on Economic Growth, Exchange Rate Stability

IMF: Acknowledging CBN’s Reforms Impact on Economic Growth, Exchange Rate Stability

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has acknowledged the positive impact of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)-led economic reforms in Nigeria. The declining inflation rate, naira stability, rising foreign reserves, economic buffers and other supportive domestic factors are listed as significant benefits from the exchange rate reforms and foreign investor-friendly policies. These, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso said, ensured that higher tariffs impact on the economy remained subdued and supported IMF’s two-year upward growth revision for the Nigeria economy. Precious Ugwuzor reports 

The verdict from the IMF that Nigeria’s economy remained strong in the face of global headwinds from trade tariffs, oil prices decline, prolonged financial markets uncertainty and corrections did not surprise many stakeholders.

For the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, there were strategic efforts taken by both monetary and fiscal authorities that provided strong buffers for the economy and triggered IMF growth revisions for the country.

Speaking during the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four (G-24) press briefing at the 2025 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC, US, the CBN said that Nigeria’s economy has been fully restructured and resilient, with huge buffers against global risks.

Cardoso, who is the leader of the Nigeria delegation at the meetings, said the naira, has equally emerged as a competitive currency, with the economy witnessing positive trade balances and large businesses moving from imports to export of locally produced goods and commodities.

On the impact of the trade tariffs on the domestic economy, he said the tariffs are less of problems for the country.

“And I think we were very fortunate, because a lot of the things that were needed to have been done, we did them much earlier, and as a result of that, we’re able to create resilience and buffers against potential shocks,” he stated.

“And for us again, oil is basically the only commodity that was so exposed to the tariffs, and the impact of that was relatively modest. We now have a more competitive currency with the results that, for once, we have a situation where we have a positive balance of trade surplus, and we expect it to be six per cent in GDP for some time,” he said.

“So basically, what is happening is a complete restructuring of the economy, where we are encouraging people to go into domestic production, and, of course, discouraging imports,” he added.

Cardoso explained that oil was the oil commodity that was exposed to the trade tariffs, but the impact was equally modest.

“So, and of course, in terms of anchoring expectations, we found that those who followed the Nigerian economy were fairly comfortable. And for us, again, oil is basically the only commodity that was so exposed, and the impact of that was relatively modest,” he said.

In his remarks, G-24 Chairman, Pablo Quirno noted that recent adverse shocks in global economy have left growth below pre-pandemic levels, with rising policy uncertainties creating substantial medium-term headwinds.

“Emerging market and developing economies have faced deteriorating terms of trade, reduced export volumes, and declining foreign currency earnings. Many of these countries have implemented domestic policies to mitigate uncertainty, but constrained policy space underscores the urgent need for collective solutions supported by multilateral institutions,” he said.

Nigeria’s revised growth for 2025, 2026

The IMF also gave a positive growth forecast of 3.9 per cent to Nigeria in 2025, and 4.1 per cent in 2026.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report for October 2025 , the

IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the Fund based its outlook for Nigeria on several improving macroeconomic indicators and supportive domestic factors.

He said factor responsible for the higher growth revision include improved oilproduction, rising investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance, and given its limited exposure to higher US tariffs.

According to him, the Fund also listed the stability in the exchange rate, rising foreign reserves and rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as significant factors expected to propel the Nigeria economy forward in 2026.

Aside Nigeria, many other economies see significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape.

“Whereas growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, and given its limited exposure to higher US tariffs, many other economies see significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape,” he said.

He said that the 10 to 12 per cent weakening of the dollar has helped financial conditions in many emerging market economies, especially countries that have dollar denominated debt. He added that local currency recovery and dip in inflation figures have also been supported by weakening dollar.

“The depreciation of the dollar also helps a number of these countries on inflation front, because a lot of goods are invoiced in those dollars, and so the pricing dollar remains constant, but the dollar itself is weaker. This helps to reduce input prices, and lead to drop in inflation,” he said.

IMF Deputy Director in the Research Department, Petya Koeva Brooks, said

that many low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa benefited from preferential access to the US market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which expired in September.

She explained that in sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to remain subdued, unchanged in 2025 from 4.1 percent in 2024, before picking up to 4.4 percent in 2026.

“This is an upward revision relative to the April 2025 WEO forecast by a cumulative 0.5 percentage point, but a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point compared with the October 2024 WEO,” she said.

According to the WEO report, the global economy is adjusting to a landscape reshaped by new policy measures.

It projected global economy growth to slow from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, with advanced economies growing around 1.5 percent and emerging market and developing economies just above 4 percent.

It said that some extremes of higher tariffs were tempered, due to subsequent deals and resets.

“But the overall environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025—such as front-loading—are fading. As a result, global growth projections in the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) are revised upward relative to the April 2025 WEO but continue to mark a downward revision relative to the pre-policy-shift forecasts,” the report said.

Likewise, inflation is projected to continue to decline globally, though with variation across countries: above target in the United States—with risks tilted to the upside—and subdued elsewhere.

 “Trade diplomacy should be paired with macroeconomic adjustment. Fiscal buffers should be rebuilt. Central bank independence should be preserved. Efforts on structural reforms should be redoubled.”

“The tactics that keep activity seemingly resilient in the short term, such as trade diversion and rerouting, are costly. Suboptimal reallocation of productive resources, technological decoupling, and limitations on knowledge diffusion are bound to restrain growth over the longer term,” it said.

The Fund said the global economy has shown resilience to the trade policy shocks, including because these shocks materialized on a smaller scale than expected at their onset, but the drag from shifting policies is becoming visible in more recent data. There have been several common drivers of growth patterns across countries but also some important idiosyncratic factors.

How it started

Speaking at the Lagos Business School leadership programme in Lagos, Cardoso, explained that  when he assumed office as Governor in 2023, Nigeria’s economy faced formidable headwinds.

“Inflation was spiraling, external reserves were strained, investor confidence was shaken, and nearly every macroeconomic indicator was under pressure. It was a moment that demanded not just technical skill, but leadership rooted in courage, credibility, and accountability. We had to act decisively,” he said.

To rein in inflation, the apex bank tightened policy aggressively, raising rates by more than 800 basis points and strengthening liquidity management.

“We restored orthodoxy by halting central bank financing of government beyond statutory limits and re-anchoring monetary policy on its core mandate,” he said.

“On foreign exchange, we introduced a willing-buyer, willing-seller framework, unified exchange rate windows, and cleared the backlog of verifiable FX commitments, restoring market confidence. We strengthened reserves, now standing above US$42 billion, and created new channels for diaspora remittances and investments, including the Non-Resident BVN platform, which allows Nigerians abroad to open accounts seamlessly from anywhere in the world,” he stated.

For Nigeria, Real GDP expanded by 4.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, signaling the re-emergence of growth momentum.

“Capital flows are rebounding, sovereign credit ratings have improved, as seen in the Credit Default Swap curve, and the naira is beginning to stabilise. Together, these shifts suggest more than a cyclical adjustment: they mark the outlines of a developmental inflection point, where investor confidence is gradually restored and Nigeria positions itself, two years on, at the threshold of structural renewal and long- term transformation,” Cardoso said.

“But this is only the beginning. The real task is to ensure that these hard-won gains translate into durable prosperity, especially for the next generation. And this is where leadership becomes critical,” he added.

Over the past two years, the CBN has undertaken critical reforms to unify Nigeria’s exchange rate, eliminating distortions and restoring transparency.

This unification has enabled us to clear the outstanding foreign exchange obligations, giving businesses—ranging from manufacturers to airlines—the confidence to plan and invest in the future. To further enhance the functionality of the foreign exchange market, we are introducing an electronic FX matching system, which has proven effective in other markets.

In the foreign exchange market, the apex bank faced a backlog of over $7 billion in unfulfilled commitments and a fragmented FX regime characterized by multiple forex rates, which had encouraged arbitrage opportunities. This regime stifled much needed foreign investment, and led to the depletion of our external reserves which fell to $33.22bn in December 2023. 

It must also be understood that the cost of the FX subsidy regime is estimated to far exceed that of fuel subsidies. In 2022 alone, the potential revenue lost due to a less flexible FX regime was approximately N6.2 trillion, compared to N4.5 trillion from fuel subsidies. These funds could have significantly contributed to critical investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure development.

While the Central Bank will continue to lay the foundation for price stability and foster a conducive policy environment, the role of our banks in this journey is crucial.

An FX market defined solely by when and how the Central Bank buys or sells dollars is inadequate for the needs of a dynamic economy like Nigeria’s. Now is the time for banks to step up to their intermediation and market-making responsibilities, providing customers with the right solutions to run their businesses and manage risks effectively.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has acknowledged the positive impact of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)-led economic reforms in Nigeria. The declining inflation rate, naira stability, rising foreign reserves,

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Great Nigeria Insurance Grows from N736m Loss to N2bn PAT

Great Nigeria Insurance Grows from N736m Loss to N2bn PAT

Ebere Nwoji

Great Nigeria Insurance Plc has said that it has risen from its hitherto loss ratio of N736 million in 2022 to  a Profit After Tax of  N2 billion for the year ended December 31,2023.

With this performance, the company said it has remained committed to a rigorous pursuit of excellence in its operations as an insurance company, having  determined to maintain a rare display courage and resilience thus far and would ontinue to give it all it takes to ensure  that it kept thriving in all its business expression.

The company’s Chairman Bade Aluko, disclosed this at the 53rd Annual General Meeting of the company held in Lagos.

Aluko, said gni reported a significant financial turnaround for the year 2023, driven largely by exceptional investment income and sector-wide resilience despite severe national economic conditions.

According to him, the underwriting firm in 2023 transitioned to the International Financial Reporting Standard 17. 

“The 2022 transiting figure for Insurance Revenue stood at N2.6bn, but it dropped in 2023 by 3.8 per cent to N2.5billion The Insurance Service Expense for 2023 stood at N2billion, rising from N1.5billion in the previous year.

“In the current reporting year, the company’s Net Investment Income stood at N4.6bn, higher than N1.3bn, indicating a 254 per cent surge in Investment Income. Profit After Tax jumped to N2bn from a loss of N736m in 2022”, he highlighted.

He said Net Investment Income was highlighted as a key driver of the company’s success, adding that in the current reporting year, the company’s Net Investment Income stood at N4.6billion as against the 2022 figure, which was N1.9billion.”

Aluko, acknowledged the broader macroeconomic context, saying, “Our organisation gallantly thrived through the avalanche of economic woes that swept businesses globally and locally since the unfortunate throes of the pandemic and the Russia/Ukraine war”..

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Ebere Nwoji Great Nigeria Insurance Plc has said that it has risen from its hitherto loss ratio of N736 million in 2022 to  a Profit After Tax of  N2 billion

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AFRICA AND THE CRISIS OF DEMOCRACY

AFRICA AND THE CRISIS OF DEMOCRACY

 Democracy in West Africa, once a beacon of hope for the African continent, is gradually losing its shine. Over the past five years, a troubling wave of military coups, electoral crises, and constitutional manipulations has swept through the region, leaving citizens questioning whether democracy still serves their aspirations. The same nations that once celebrated transitions from dictatorship to civilian rule are now battling disillusionment, distrust, and political fatigue.

The return of military juntas in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger marks one of the darkest chapters in the region’s modern political history. Each coup has followed a familiar script — public anger over corruption, insecurity, and poor governance, exploited by soldiers who promise “national salvation.” Yet, years later, the promises of reform and stability remain unfulfilled. These regimes, though initially welcomed by frustrated citizens, often slide into the same cycle of authoritarianism and repression that they claimed to replace.

Nigeria, regarded as the region’s democratic anchor, has not been immune to its own crises. Although the country has sustained civilian rule since 1999, recurring issues such as electoral malpractice, voter intimidation, and judicial manipulation continue to plague its political system. The 2023 general elections, marred by allegations of irregularities and voter suppression, deepened public skepticism about whether democracy in Nigeria truly reflects the will of the people. For many, democracy now feels like a game played by the powerful at the expense of the powerless.

Across the subregion, political ambition has increasingly overshadowed democratic principles. In Guinea, former President Alpha Condé amended the constitution to seek a controversial third term in 2020, a move that ignited violent protests and ultimately led to his ouster. In Senegal, the long-serving President Macky Sall faced mass demonstrations amid speculation about his plans for a third term before he eventually ruled himself out of the 2024 race. These examples reflect a broader pattern of leaders who treat constitutional limits as mere suggestions rather than binding rules.

The consequences of these political tensions have been devastating. Economies have suffered as investors flee unstable environments. Civil liberties have been eroded under the guise of national security, and the media in many countries face harassment and censorship. Citizens who once placed their hopes in democracy now express nostalgia for the “stability” of military rule — a dangerous sentiment that reflects how deeply governance has failed to meet public expectations.

At the heart of this democratic backslide lies a crisis of leadership. The absence of visionary, accountable, and selfless leaders has made democracy in West Africa fragile. Corruption, nepotism, and the misuse of state resources have become the norm rather than the exception. Elections are often treated as contests of wealth rather than ideas, while public service is seen as an avenue for personal enrichment. Until governance is redefined as service to the people, not self-interest, democracy will continue to struggle.

Mercy Johnson, Dept of Mass Communication University of Maiduguri

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 Democracy in West Africa, once a beacon of hope for the African continent, is gradually losing its shine. Over the past five years, a troubling wave of military coups, electoral

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SECURING DELTA STATE

SECURING DELTA STATE

Oborevwori relaunches the state security trust fund to procure modern surveillance equipment and operational vehicles, writes 

 FIDELIS EDUVIE

The decision by Governor Sheriff Oborevwori to relaunches the Delta State Security Trust Fund in partnership with the private sector is nothing short of visionary. In an era when security is often assumed to be the sole preserve of the government, his administration’s persuasion that security is everyone’s business is instructive.

According to Oborevwori, the fund was established in 2013 is to mobilise private-sector resources to complement the government’s investment in security. At the event which was held recently, he disclosed that the fund would be used to procure modern surveillance equipment, operational vehicles, and communication tools, as well as supporting the training and retraining of security personnel and community vigilante groups across the state’s 25 local government areas.

“Security is not the sole responsibility of government,” Oborevwori said, while announcing that 0.5 per cent of the state’s Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) had been earmarked monthly for Fund.

“It is everyone’s business. Without adequate security, development cannot thrive, businesses cannot operate freely, and investors will be reluctant to commit their resources. This Trust Fund represents our shared commitment to peace, public safety, and sustainable growth.”

The logic is glaring. One cannot thrive in an insecure environment. It is the absence of security that causes large swathes of land to lie fallow with farmers dreading their farms. It is the absence of security that forces people to leave their ancestral lands to become refugees in other lands. It is the absence of security that has transformed communities into ghost towns. It is the absence of security that allows insecurity to thrive, snuffing lives, dimming the peace and driving prosperity away.

It is especially encouraging that the Oborevwori administration has set aside a steady 0.5% monthly commitment from the state’s IGR. By this move, the administration is demonstrating that this initiative is not a lip-service proposition but a structural reform. That kind of financial allocation speaks to seriousness, to a recognition that long-term security infrastructure demands consistent funding, not one-off handouts.

When one examines the context of the Niger Delta region, where criminal networks, illegal oil bunkering, youth restiveness, and environmental pressures have often combined to undermine progress, the approach taken by Governor Oborevwori stands out as pragmatic. Rather than simply deploying more security agents or weaponry, the emphasis on modern surveillance, operational vehicles, communication tools, and the training of community vigilante groups reflects a holistic strategy. It recognises that sustainable security cannot be imposed from the top down alone. It must be built from within society, with the involvement of every stakeholder.

What is also highly commendable is the governor’s acknowledgement that security links intimately with economic development. In his speech he stated openly that without safety, development cannot thrive, businesses will be hesitant to commit resources, and citizens will be denied the quality of life they deserve. This is not rhetoric but a fundamental truth. When a state projects that it is not safe to invest, entrepreneurs hold back, employment stagnates, and the cycle of poverty and insecurity becomes self-reinforcing. And the people that are made worse-off, are the residents. In an ideal setting, security management should be a public-private partnership.

“Peace and security are better sustained when citizens, especially women and youths, have opportunities to participate in economic growth,” Oborevwori said.

“Your contributions today are not just donations; they are investments in peace, stability, and economic prosperity.”

The chief launcher, Chairman of Tantita Security Services Limited, High Chief Government Ekpemupolo, kicked off the funding with a N10bn donation. Other big donations that followed came from the Group Chairman of Access Holdings Plc, Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, who chaired the occasion, and announced a N100 million personal donation on behalf of himself and his wife. And Zenith Bank founder and chairman, Jim Ovia, who was Special Guest of Honour, reaffirmed Zenith Bank’s partnership.

It is refreshing to see the voluntariness of the appeal. When communities, companies and individuals view their contributions as investments in their own future, then the Fund gains not only money but legitimacy and endurance. It is that ownership which will ultimately determine whether this initiative thrives beyond the short term. Of course, the path ahead will include challenges but the foundation laid by this initiative is a strong one. It demonstrates leadership, vision, and the kind of multi-sector collaboration needed in today’s Nigeria.

Moreover, this initiative sends a strong signal to investors, both local and foreign. By visibly committing to safe, secure governance, Delta State enhances its attractiveness as a location to do business. Companies analyse risk, and risk includes the safety of their operations, personnel and assets. Another point worth highlighting is the transparency commitment the governor gave: assuring that the funds will be judiciously managed. Good governance is as important as good intention. When citizens and private partners commit resources, trust must be built. By setting this standard early, the administration is laying the groundwork for sustained success. With previous initiatives undermined by mismanagement or lack of accountability, the overt emphasis on transparent administration of the Fund is a welcome departure from business-as-usual.

Across Nigeria, states struggle with limited resources, rising security demands and shrinking margins of safety for citizens and investment alike. Before September 2007 when Lagos State initiated the Lagos State Security Trust Fund (LSSTF), the state, just like any other, had to contend with the inadequacy of federal security apparatus. Notably, the police, the closest security architecture to the people, lacked basic infrastructure. The police stations looked uninspiring, the barracks were appalling, salary and allowances poor, vehicles rickety. Simply put, the police were not well funded for its primary role of providing security. But it did not take long for the benefits of the LSSTF to be felt. And following that discovery, other states, including the federal government emulated and created versions of the fund. It is commendable that they are copying a good model.

As a major player in the oil and gas industry in Nigeria, Delta State occupies a solid position and the idea of a Security Trust Fund also speaks to a deeper fact that governance in the 21st century cannot solely rely on public sector capacity. The complexity of modern security demands that resources, innovation and opera tional models draw on private sector funding, citizen buy-in, and public-network integration.

The Security Trust Fund is not merely a policy instrument; it is the shorthand for collective hope, shared responsibility and a more prosperous tomorrow for all Deltans. By acknowledging this and operationalising it, Oborevwori has positioned Delta State to leap forward to more greatness. He deserves his flowers.

Eduvie writes from Asaba, Delta State

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Oborevwori relaunches the state security trust fund to procure modern surveillance equipment and operational vehicles, writes   FIDELIS EDUVIE The decision by Governor Sheriff Oborevwori to relaunches the Delta State Security Trust