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Keyamo: PDP in Legal Risk Fielding Jonathan in 2027El-Rufai: Tinubu Will Come Third in Presidential Election

Keyamo: PDP in Legal Risk Fielding Jonathan in 2027El-Rufai: Tinubu Will Come Third in Presidential Election

* Accuses Uba Sani of disrupting ADC meeting in Kaduna 

*NSA: Facts on fight against banditry disprove El-Rufai’s false claims

Chuks Okocha, Olawale Ajimotokan in Abuja and Chinedu Eze in Lagos

The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, yesterday advised the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) against fielding either former President Goodluck Jonathan or former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, as its presidential candidate in 2027.

But the Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA) has cautioned Keyamo, and other cabinet members to concentrate on their official duties and desist from dabbling into premature 2027 election permutations.
The group warned that such reckless politicking undermined governance and could further aggravate the hardships faced by the Nigerian people.
Keyamo, on X, contended that the opposition risked serious consequences in the upcoming election if it relied on Jonathan or Obi as its candidate.

He said the PDP remained in a “non-enviable position” after failing to zone its 2023 ticket to the South, a decision he said cost the party support in its traditional strongholds in the South-south and South-east.
The minister stated that nominating Jonathan carried a constitutional danger tied to section 137(3) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), which he suggested could bar anyone sworn in twice as president from contesting again.
While creating several scenarios, Keyamo argued that if eventually Jonathan is barred by the court from running after nominations have closed, the PDP will be declared as having no candidate.

He said: “One of its attractive targets as a Presidential candidate is ex-President Goodluck Jonathan, because of his purported eligibility to run for only one term. But, if he is fielded, the party runs the risk of not having a candidate at all by virtue of section 137 (3) of the 1999 Constitution (Fourth Amendment). The constitutional amendment was made after the court judgment which cleared him to run in 2015, so nothing is decided yet on that new amendment, hence I use the word ‘risk’ advisedly.

“All the arguments as to whether the section can be interpreted to affect him will not be decided on social media, but at the Supreme Court. If he is barred from running after nominations have closed and the PDP is declared as having no candidate, nobody should scream ‘judiciary is corrupt’ because such a large party saw the judicial danger ahead and deliberately ignored it,” Keyamo, a senior lawyer maintained.

He emphasised that if the PDP decides to field its most attractive South-west candidate, no other region of the country will vote for a fresh Yoruba candidate who would be eligible for fresh two terms in office, pointing out that the candidate will battle with the ‘well-oiled’ APC structures in the South-west.
According to him, the same scenario will apply to Obi, arguing that the PDP is in a dilemma because it committed an ‘original sin’ in 2023 by lacking the balls to zone its presidential ticket to the South.

He added: “If the PDP woos back Peter Obi, scenario three above will still apply to him, hence all his shout of serving one-term of recent. In addition, the principled ones amongst the ‘obidients’ will see him as going back to his vomit of ‘structure of criminality’ and may not be too vociferous in their support anymore.
“The young social media warriors may lampoon anyone talking about these zoning sentiments, but that is the reality of our politics and it is not about to end. Except something extraordinary happens, the party may have to wait till 2031,” he maintained.

He added that the party would bear responsibility if it ignored the legal risk and lost its candidacy after nominations closed.
But HURIWA, in a statement, yesterday, described as insensitive and diversionary the long political commentary made by Keyamo on his X account, where he analysed the possible setbacks of the opposition PDP in the 2027 presidential election.

HURIWA said it was disturbing that a sitting minister, entrusted with the crucial mandate of managing Nigeria’s aviation and aerospace development, could devote his time to speculative political analysis while millions of Nigerians were suffocating under crushing economic policies and failing public infrastructure.
The group admonished President Bola Tinubu to call his cabinet members to order, stressing that ministers were appointed to rescue Nigeria’s collapsing economy and not to become political commentators or strategists for the ruling party.

HURIWA noted with dismay that cabinet officials like Keyamo were neglecting their core responsibilities, thereby dragging the country back by over six decades through a combination of poor policy implementation and coordinated toxic taxation policies.
According to the rights group, the present administration has presided over a regime of excessive levies and charges that discourage businesses, suffocate innovation, and kill off youth entrepreneurship.

El-Rufai: Tinubu will Come Third in Presidential Election
Still on the 2027 polls, a former Governor of Kaduna State and key member of the new African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nasir El-Rufai, has predicted that Tinubu will suffer a major humiliation in the 2027 election if he’s on the ballot, saying at best the President will come third in the first round of the election leading to a run-off without the president.
El-Rufai who made this known on Channels TV yesterday,  urged Tinubu to learn from the experience of former President Goodluck Jonathan, who was defeated by the late President Muhammadu Buhari in the 2015 presidential election.
He said: “If you want to engage in self-delusion, you are free to do so. I will not tell you how we are going to win, but I tell you very clearly — the worst-case scenario in the 2027 elections is that no winner will emerge in the first round.
“We may have to go for a runoff, and Bola Tinubu will not be on the ballot for the runoff, because he will, at best, be third in the election. He has no pathway to win. I have done the maths, I have done the analysis; he cannot — he will, at best, be third.

“But he can deceive himself; he may think, oh, you know, I have money, because they have taken all the money in the country, I have INEC, I have the police, I have the army. “It’s like those who say Tinubu has never lost an election. That can be contested, but it’s okay. He’s a political strategist, he’s this, he’s that. Wait!”
He accused the President of mismanaging the economy, noting that 30 million more Nigerians had been impoverished in the last two years as a result of economic policy.
El-Rufai, who fell out with Tinubu after his nomination as a minister was rejected by the National Assembly, insisted that he would have resigned if he was made a minister in the Tinubu administration.
He said that serving as a minister under Tinubu was never his ambition, stating that Tinubu had begged him to join the cabinet but later changed his mind.

“I would have probably resigned if I was a minister in Tinubu’s government. I had no desire to be a minister. I don’t care what people are saying now. I have been a minister when I was much younger,” he said.
Besides, he accused the governor of Kaduna state, Uba Sani, of being behind the attack at the Kaduna ADC committee inauguration in Kaduna at the weekend. El-Rufai claimed that there was evidence that the state governor orchestrated the attack.
He said: “I have evidence that Kaduna State Governor is behind Saturday’s attacks. I will submit evidence to the IGP and other authorities if they care to investigate.”

El-Rufai who was instrumental to Sani’s emergence as Kaduna State governor in 2023, further said there was no dispute between him and the governor, declaring that Sani was never his friend.
“I’ve not fallen out with the governor. No, he is not my friend. He was my boy, my mentee. We have not fallen out. I still don’t speak with him. My biggest pride in life is that I have encouraged and elevated many people to greatness, some even greater than me, and I am very proud of it.
“ But when a person derails, when he doesn’t do the right thing, because I contributed to getting him there, I am prohibited from commenting? Is that what the country has become?”

NSA Responds to El-Rufai’s Claim
Meanwhile , the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) last night reacted to comments made by El-Rufai, in the television interview, where he alleged that the ONSA coordinates a policy of payments and offers incentives to bandits.
“This claim is baseless. At no time has the ONSA, or any arm of government under this administration, engaged in ransom payments or inducements to criminals. On the contrary, we have consistently warned Nigerians against paying ransom. El-Rufai’s allegations are not only false but also contradict verifiable facts on ground,” the office said in a statement signed by Zakari Mijinyawa.

The statement said that from inception, this government adopted a dual strategy: decisive kinetic operations alongside community engagements aimed at addressing local grievances.
The result, the office led by Nuhu Ribadu, the National Security Adviser, said, is evident in areas such as Igabi, Birnin Gwari, Giwa, and other parts of Kaduna that once suffered untold terror  in Kaduna state but are now experiencing relative peace.
“The efforts of our gallant military and security agencies in capturing or eliminating notorious bandits have been widely reported in the media. In Kaduna alone, known kingpins  who once terrorised residents such as Boderi, Baleri, Sani Yellow Janburos, Buhari and Boka, among others, were eliminated. Only recently, leaders of Ansaru who previously established bases in Kaduna were apprehended.

“These successes came at a cost, some of our brave officers paid the supreme price. For a former governor of a state in person of El-Rufai to deny these sacrifices on national television is both unfair and deeply insulting to the memories of our security personnel.

“We urge El-Rufai and all political actors to desist from dragging national security institutions into partisan battles. The fight against banditry is a collective struggle, not a platform for political point-scoring,” the ONSA added.

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* Accuses Uba Sani of disrupting ADC meeting in Kaduna  *NSA: Facts on fight against banditry disprove El-Rufai’s false claims Chuks Okocha, Olawale Ajimotokan in Abuja and Chinedu Eze in Lagos
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Chatham House: Corruption Undermining Nigeria’s Economic Growth, Eroding Public Trust

Chatham House: Corruption Undermining Nigeria’s Economic Growth, Eroding Public Trust

*Says govt interference, inadequate funding hindering anti-graft war

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Chatham House, a leading UK-based independent policy institute, has said that corruption in Nigeria has continued to hamper economic growth and erode trust in public institutions in the country, despite 25 years of attempts at reforms by various administrations.

Chatham House, an organisation established in 1920, stated this in a new report written by its Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Dr Leena Hoffmann and Comment Editor, Communications and Publishing, Tommy Hilton.
According to the organisation, corrupt practices are deeply entrenched across various levels of Nigeria’s government and society and permeate politics, public administration, law enforcement and the judiciary, often undermining the delivery of basic services.

However, the report is coming less than a week after President Bola Tinubu claimed during an official engagement in Brazil  that his administration had rid the nation of corruption, hinging the ‘success’ on his government’s economic reforms.
“The reforms I’ve embarked upon since I took over in Nigeria have been very impactful. I can beat my chest for that. It was initially painful, but today the result is blossoming. It’s getting clearer to the people. We have more money for the economy… no more corruption,” Tinubu had said at the event
However, the Chatham House report stated while most Nigerians disapprove of corruption, many tolerate or even engage in corrupt practices as they see it as the only way of surviving in a dysfunctional system.

The organisation said the report builds on the extensive research of Chatham House’s Social Norms and Accountable Governance (SNAG) project, funded by the MacArthur Foundation, which provides a compelling snapshot of the state of corruption in Nigeria, and the norms and expectations surrounding it.
In buttressing its position, Chatham stated that Nigeria is ranked among the world’s 40 most corrupt countries on the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and 35th from bottom on the World Bank’s list of countries measured by their control of corruption.

Within Africa, it stated that Nigeria ranks 33rd for overall governance out of 54 countries measured in the Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG), which takes into account various measures including anti-corruption mechanisms and how successful they have been.
“Corruption has eroded the basis for Nigeria’s economic prosperity and negatively impacted its growth. This is evident when looking at Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. While Nigeria has the fourth largest economy on the African continent by GDP, its GDP per capita – a more accurate measure of prosperity – is among the lowest in Africa.
“Corruption continues to be a defining feature of Nigeria’s governance, public administration and political life, hindering its full potential and global standing. At its core, corruption diverts public resources away from vital sectors such as education, healthcare and infrastructure, fuelling poverty and inequality. More than half of all Nigerians – approximately 54 per cent – live in poverty,” the report said.

Beyond the economic wellbeing of Nigeria, corruption, Chatham House said, has weakened the rule of law and undermined the public’s trust in critical institutions to deliver justice and protect peoples’ lives and basic rights.
Such an erosion of trust, according to the report, fosters a culture of impunity, where many individuals believe – rightly or wrongly – that corruption is the reality of life in Nigeria and that many engage in corrupt practices without facing consequences.

This sense of the corruption being intractable, it said, has fuelled the frustrations of some marginalised groups and the sense of hopelessness among some of Nigeria’s youth, as these grievances, in turn, drive emigration, protests, political violence and even fuel extremist insurgencies.
Besides, the report stated that corruption also impacts social cohesion and national unity, highlighting that the persistent impunity surrounding corruption also risks eroding ethical values and encouraging a culture of self-interest, where both elites and ordinary citizens increasingly prioritise private gain over the collective good.
“This has exacerbated Nigeria’s societal challenges, perpetuating a vicious cycle of corruption, systemic inefficiencies and underdevelopment,” it said.

While Nigeria suffers from extensive corruption, extensive research by Chatham House and others showed that Nigerians largely oppose corruption and acknowledge its harmful effects on the country.
“Chatham House’s survey data shows a substantial proportion of the population distrust key institutions. Governance and law enforcement institutions are the most distrusted: Nigeria’s police force has the lowest level of trust, highlighting deep-seated challenges related to corruption, abuse of power and lack of accountability.

“Lower trust in governance institutions (i.e. federal, state and local government) also reflects concerns over the efficiency and transparency of government spending and most citizen’s experiences with inadequate public services. The crisis of trust in Nigeria’s justice system is a stark indictment of compromised courts, which are widely perceived as politically captured and therefore unable to guarantee impartiality and equitable access to justice,” it added.

Quoting from its latest SNAG survey results, it stated  Nigerians showed mixed levels of trust in others, with a significant factor contributing to tolerance of corruption being the perception that it is the price for getting things done, and there is little to no consequence for wrongdoing.

“Moreover, the culture of clientelism and patronage prevalent in Nigeria has normalised corrupt practices. Social connections, family ties, and political allegiances often play a significant role in determining access to resources and opportunities.

“In a society where basic services are often unreliable and access to opportunities limited, individuals may resort to bribery or other corrupt acts to secure essential services, navigate bureaucratic hurdles, or gain an advantage in the marketplace,” it pointed out.

While decades of military rule, it said, have stymied development of democratic institutions, it also blamed insufficient funding for anti-corruption agencies, coupled with political interference, as key factors undermining the effectiveness of key institutions that were established or reconstituted after the end of military rule 25 years ago. 

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*Says govt interference, inadequate funding hindering anti-graft war Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja Chatham House, a leading UK-based independent policy institute, has said that corruption in Nigeria has continued to hamper
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