For Ondo State Governorship Contest, It’s Two Horse Race

*How the leading candidates, Aiyedatiwa, Ajayi stand

*APC, PDP, others sign peace accord

Fidelis David in Akure

It is seven days to the November 16 governorship election in Ondo State. All the political parties in the polls have begun final preparations for the encounter that will take place next Saturday.
This was as political parties fielding candidates for the poll yesterday, signed a Peace Accord.
Specifically, 17 political parties including the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its candidate, Lucky Aiyedatiwa; Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Agboola Ajayi, among others signed the Peace Accord at Akure, the state capital.

Chairman of the National Peace Committee and former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar urged the party leaders and candidates to accept the outcome of the elections as long as it is adjudged to be free, fair, and credible, and to seek legitimate and peaceful means of addressing any concern that may arise thereafter.

“I want to call on all stakeholders to work assiduously in their capacities to ensure that peace reigns supreme during this election and that the Ondo state off-cycle election sets a precedent for other off-cycle elections to emulate.
“While I commend the INEC, for the work done so far, I call on them to continuously live up to their responsibilities in ensuring that eligible voters exercise their franchise peacefully and that the remaining electoral processes are credible free, and fair.

“I must also extol the Nigeria Police Force and members of the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) for maintaining peace and security in Ondo State. It has indeed remained one of the relatively peaceful states in the country. I therefore urge them to remain resilient in averting any threats of violence and maintaining the peace in the state as we are only a few days away from the elections.
Abubakar called on the people of Ondo State to exercise their civic duty by coming out en masse to vote for the candidates of their choice and desist from selling their votes, as it contradicts the very essence of democracy.

Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Mahmood Yakubu, said the commission has perfected its arrangements for the movement of over 17,000 ad hoc and regular officials as well as large quantities of materials to 4,154 voting and collation locations (3,933 polling units, 203 Ward and 18 LGA collation centres).

“In the case of Ondo State, this task is to be accomplished by boat in the two riverine Local Government Areas of Ese Odo and Ilaje, and by a combination of trucks, four wheel vehicles and motorcycles in respect of the mainland areas of the State. You should therefore expect to see a remarkable improvement in Election Day logistics. Voters in Ondo State should also expect to see similar improvement in result management.

“I will not be tired of appealing to political parties and candidates to note that your signatures on the Peace Accord document alone will not guarantee a peaceful election. The Peace Accord is not an automated, self-activating document. Your commitment to its implementation is critical. Therefore, as you sign the Peace Accord, you should commit yourselves to its implementation and pass the message to your supporters at all levels for compliance. As I said repeatedly, this is the best way to honour the effort and sacrifice of the Chairman and members of the NPC to peaceful elections in Nigeria.”

In his address, the Inspector General of Police, Olukayode Egbetokun said the Police will timeously provide enough Armoured Personnel Carrier (APCs), trucks, patrol vehicles, buses for covert operations, ambulances, helicopters, drones, K9 and anti-riot equipment to complement the strength of Ondo State Command.
He stressed that  all measures will be emplaced on or before Monday, November 11, 2024.
The IGP said the Police would deploy a total of 34,657 personnel to the polling units, wards/LGA collation centers as well as other strategic locations.

“It is expected that four Police personnel will be deployed at each polling unit, which then implies that 15,732 conventional police personnel will be required for the 3,933 polling units and voting points in the State.
“This will be complemented by the Armed Forces, the Intelligence Security Agencies and other sister Security Agencies. A total of 8,500 personnel from the Nigeria Customs Service, Nigeria Correctional Service, Nigeria Immigration Service, Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, Federal Road Safety Corps and the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency will be deployed to augment the Police strength. This will bring the total number of security personnel deployed for the election to 43,157”, Egbetokun added.

Basically, the people of the sunshine state are optimistic that the governorship election would be a catalyst to the speedy transformation of the state and ultimately free the people from evils of want, ignorance, social injustice and economic exploitation.
Ondo is one of the eight states that conduct off-cycle governorship elections, which fall outside the usual general election and has  successfully conducted  it in 2012, 2016, and 2020, with the next one scheduled for November 16,  2024.

Particularly, governorship elections in Ondo have always been highly contested with different dynamics coming into play including power of incumbency, financial muscle and federal might amongst others.
According to INEC, 18 political parties nominated candidates for the election. The final list of candidates published by INEC on June 14th, 2024 included incumbent governor, Aiyedatiwa of the APC and Ajayi, a former deputy governor of the PDP.

Other governorship candidates with their deputies include – Accord Party, Ajibola Falaiye, deputy, Samuel lkuyajolu; Action Alliance, Omolere Akinuli, deputy, Oluwatosin Adeyemi; African Action Congress, Oluwaseyi Ajayi, deputy, Abiodun Lijofi; All Progressive Grand Alliance, Olatunji Popoola, deputy, Ayorinde Adedeji, and Allied Peoples Movement, lsaac Ogunfeyimi, deputy, Arowolo Afolabi.

Also in the contest are Action Peoples Party, Babatunde Fadoju, deputy, Olarewaju Ajagunna; African Democratic Congress, Adeyemi Nejo, deputy, Rasheed Ibrahim; New Nigeria People’s Party, Gbenga Edema; and Peoples Redemption Party, Babatunde Alli, deputy, Olusegun Famesa.

Not left out in the Saturday duel for who presides over the affairs of the state are; Young Progressives Party, Otitoloju Akinmurele, deputy, Ayodele Obe; Youth Party, Kehinde Adegoke, deputy, Otitoleke Olupitan; and Zenith Labour Party, Abbas Mimiko, deputy, Opeyemi Fadoju among others.
To further show the level of its preparedness, the National Chairman of INEC, Yakubu, had confirmed that sensitive materials for the election, including ballot papers and result sheets among others, would arrive on Tuesday, next week.

According to him, the materials would be inspected on Wednesday by political parties, observers, media, security agencies, and Commission’s staff.
Yakubu, who also monitored the commission’s mock accreditation exercise on Wednesday said it was a routine activity to further test functionality of the system.

Speaking shortly after the mock accreditation, Yakubu expressed satisfaction with the conduct of the mock election, especially with the equipment used for the exercise.
Also, on Thursday Yakubu during a Stakeholders’ meeting in Akure disclosed that the commission would deploy 3,554 observers for the poll.
Yakubu said the commission accredited 111 domestic and international organisations, over 100 radio, television, newspaper and online media organisations, comprising 700 personnel, including 129 female journalists.

 The INEC boss who disclosed that about 2,053,061 registered voters from the 18 local government areas of the state would participate in the exercise, acknowledged the synergy with the security and law enforcement agencies, saying, “we underscored the importance of providing security during the election to guarantee personal safety and protection of observers, the media, and our own officials and, above all, the citizens that will vote during the election.

For his part, the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) of INEC in the state, Mrs. Oluwatoyin Babalola, during a meeting with members of all political parties in the state said the commission had recorded a total of 2,053,061 registered voters ahead of the poll.
Nevertheless, all the parties’ campaigns are approaching the last lap, and they’ve been wooing the electorates on why they are the messiah to take Ondo people to the promise land.
Suffice it to say that the election is a two-horse race. In other words, the centre stage might be a battle of wits between the political lieutenants of late Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu and other candidates. Both Aiyedatiwa and Agboola were at various times deputies to the late Akeredolu.

 Lucky Aiyedatiwa

 Strengths

On December 27, 2023, Lucky Aiyedatiwa was sworn-in as governor of Ondo State following the death of his principal and former governor, Akeredolu and constitutionally, Aiyedatiwa stepped in to complete the joint tenure of late Akeredolu and himself by February 2025.
Ondo State Governor and candidate of the party, Aiyedatiwa said his administration’s interventions in the last 10 months justify his quest, noting that the party remains committed to building the Sunshine State if given the mandate.
 In a bid to seek re-election, in April 2024, after the initial dispute that fraught the first round of the exercise, incumbent Aiyedatiwa, was declared winner of the governorship primary of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state, thus, became the standard bearer of the party for the forthcoming poll.

Federal Might/ Governors

One of the Strengths of Lucky Aiyedatiwa is that he has the backing of the presidency, governors of the party and the national leadership to win the poll since he party is in power at the center so he will be availed of federal might which may weigh much in the contest.

 Secondly, the power of incumbency from time immemorial has always been a nightmare for any arch rival. In other words, as an incumbent governor, he had enough resources to fund his election because it is widely believed that any aspirant who wishes to succeed in any contest, must have the wherewithal, party structure as well as proven integrity. So he has the treasury of the state and can deploy same in his favour

Choice of Deputy

The nomination of a deputy, Olayide Owolabi Adelami, former Deputy Clerk to the National Assembly, from the same Owo Local Government as late governor, Oluwarotimi Akeredolu was a smart move and might further boost his chances in the poll. Nominating a deputy from the zone of the late governor would be seen as adequate compensation to the zone and it may swing their votes.

 Akeredolu’s goodwill

Besides, Aiyedatiwa had consistently declared that his late principal (Akeredolu) had always wished that he (Aiyedatiwa) succeeds him, thus, those who believe in spirituality see it as another strength ahead of the poll.

 Also, public opinion conducted by THISDAY showed that residents of the state are happy with the present development in the state and the achievements of Aiyedatiwa within 10 months in office, believing that the governor, has been performing wonderfully well like his predecessor (Akeredolu) and  should be allowed to rule the state for another four years.

 Track Record

Corroborating these, Aiyedatiwa during the inauguration of the national campaign council of the party held in Akure, said his administration’s interventions in the last 10 months justify his quest, noting that the party remains committed to building the Sunshine State if given the mandate.

“Within the last 10 months we have deliberately focused on Infrastructural Development, Public Utilities Renewal, Agricultural Production increment, Entrepreneurship and Youth Development, Job Creation and Security.  We have focused on strengthening governance institutions through fiscal discipline, improved healthcare, access to quality education and responsible citizenship. We have shown commitment to social welfare to alleviate the sufferings of our people. We have deliberately created a stronger engagement with our women, too. We are concerned with leadership with integrity and character. We are not talking on our people, we are talking with them.

“Remarkably, within our 10 months in the saddle, we have activated the construction of not less than 70km of rural roads in order to provide access to our farm settlements and villages. This is in addition to the new 60km city based roads recently awarded alongside the ongoing roads, bridges and public building projects initiated and awarded by our administration.

 Backing of Workers

“It is significant that our workers are happy and well-motivated as we pay their salaries regularly and promptly. We owe no kobo to workers, even as they enjoy their regular promotion. We have employed workers into critical sectors of the public service, such as health and Internal Revenue Service, while processes at an advanced stage to recruit about 2,000 teachers for public primary and secondary schools. We have supported not less than 500 youths with hundreds of million naira grants and loans as part of start-up kits for their entrepreneurial businesses.”

Weaknesses

 Poor Party Image

However, the belief by many residents of the state that APC federal government led by Bola Tinubu had plunged the country into economic hardship because of the party’s gross mismanagement of the economy at the centre could be the albatross of Aiyedatiwa.

 In other words, people are naturally tired of APC because they believe that the name of the party and its members are synonymous to hardship, hunger, frustration and retrogression.

Same Senatorial Zone as Agboola

Also, coming from same area as Agboola Ajayi is a challenge for Aiyedatiwa’s candidature as they may divide the votes

 Agboola Ajayi of PDP

 Strengths

Agboola Ajayi, the candidate of PDP had served as a councilor, Chairman of Ese-Odo local government, and House of Representatives member before he was nominated by late governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu (SAN) as his deputy governor in 2016.

Despite some concerns raised by the PDP, the political parties from all indications are good to go in the election.

 Grassroots Support

Specifically, political pundits believe that despite the crisis in PDP, Agboola Ajayi might still win election because he’s a grassroots politician who knows how to knock on the doors of the common man.

 Political weight

During the direct primary election which led his emergence as the standard bearer of PDP, he surprisingly polled a total of 264 votes to defeat six other aspirants. Notably, top chieftains of PDP didn’t support him in the primary but he still won.

He also listed his 7-key agenda for the state to include infrastructure, agriculture, health development amongst others.

 Strong Agenda

“We will enhance the capacity of law enforcement agencies particularly Amotekun, Forest Guards, Vigilantes, and Traditional Hunters through advanced training and provision of appropriate equipment. With the cooperative engagement of traditional rulers, religious leaders, and other stakeholders implement community policing and neighborhood watch programs to improve public safety.

 “Massively, we will produce food to immediately end hunger in the state by purchasing and distributing high yield seeds, seedlings and inputs to farmers. Increase and improve classrooms and other buildings for primary, secondary and tertiary institutions within the state. Free and compulsory education at the primary and junior secondary levels for all.

 On health, Agboola said, his government  will provide a primary health centre in each of the 203 wards in the state to be staffed by trained and dedicated medical personnel and provide essential drugs, hospital consumables and laboratory services to patients at affordable costs.”

 Be as it may, there are no reasonable grounds to believe that voters will be convinced based on the manifestoes of the candidates,  suggesting that other indices including party affiliation, financial wherewithal, vote buying among other factors outside the manifesto might influence the outcome of the election.