Bawumia, Mahama locked in close contest over 2024 elections

..As polls show diverging results

As the December 2024 Presidential and Parliamentary elections approach, the political landscape in Ghana is heating up, with both the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) sharing opinion polls to sway undecided voters.

The NPP, began celebrating results from a poll conducted by Outcomes International, which projected its candidate, Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, as the likely winner of the 2024 Presidential Election.

The poll indicated Bawumia would secure 49.4percent of the votes, ahead of the NDC’s candidate, former President John Mahama, who was predicted to garner 45.1percent.

The poll, also revealed that 5.2percent of voters, remain undecided, while only 0.3percent indicated support for other candidates. The Outcomes International poll, further suggested that Bawumia would win in 11 out of the 16 regions, leaving Mahama with victories in five regions.

However, just three days later, the NDC found reason to celebrate as well. A separate poll conducted by Ghanaian-based, Global InfoAnalytics, showed John Mahama maintaining a commanding lead over Bawumia. According to this poll, Mahama was leading with 51.1percent of committed voters, while Bawumia trailed with 37.3percent.

Independent candidates, Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB) held 4.1percent and 6.2percent of the vote, respectively, with other candidates securing 1.3percent.

Under the unweighted likely voters’ model, Mahama, still leads with 49.3percent compared to Bawumia’s 35.9percent.

The poll highlights voter apathy as a significant challenge for the NPP, with 16percent of potential non-voters identified as NPP supporters.

By contrast, the NDC sees only 3percent of its supporters in this category. Floating voters and those who declined to disclose their affiliations make up 38percent and 39percent , respectively, of those who say they will not vote.

Mahama holds a key advantage over Bawumia among floating voters, leading by a substantial 31-point margin (54percent to 23percent ), and a further 18-point lead among voters who refused to disclose their party affiliations.

Additionally, Mahama has seen a growing edge among first-time voters, leading Bawumia by 46percent to 38percent , an improvement from a tied result in July 2024.

Global InfoAnalytics noted that a worrying trend for Bawumia is a decline in support among Muslim voters, a key demographic for his campaign, with his backing in this group dropping by nearly 4percent between July and October 2024.

The poll also reveals shifts among voters who supported President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020. While 70percent of those voters remain loyal to Bawumia, 19percent have switched to Mahama, with 5percent each moving to Kyeremanten and Bediako. In key regions like Greater Accra and Central, 20percent and 37percent of 2020 NPP voters, have shifted their support to Mahama.

In terms of regional dominance, Mahama leads in 12 regions, adding the Bono region to his column since the July poll.

He now commands Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti, and Volta regions. Bawumia, on the other hand, leads in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions.

Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kyeremanten, are emerging as significant contenders, especially in the Eastern and Ashanti regions, where their combined presence is eroding Bawumia’s dominance. In the Ashanti region, where the NPP aims to secure 85percent of the vote, Bawumia remains at 66percent, with Mahama at 22percent, Bediako at 7percent, and Kyeremanten at 4percent.

Mahama, is also outperforming his party’s parliamentary candidates in 56 of the 111 constituencies surveyed, while Bawumia trails his candidates in 79 constituencies, reflecting the potential impact of Kyeremanten and Bediako on the ruling party’s fortunes.

The poll underscores the central issues influencing voters ahead of the December elections: the economy, jobs, and education. The economy remains the top concern, with 70percent of respondents citing it as their primary issue, followed by jobs (62percent ) and education (48percent ). Voters are also influenced by the current economic conditions, with 55percent highlighting them as a key factor, followed by party performance (40percent ), candidate credibility (34percent ), and party manifestos (28percent ).

On manifesto favorability, the NDC leads the NPP by a 14-point margin, with the NPP’s manifesto holding a net favorability rating of +6 points.

The poll also reveals discontent with the country’s direction, as 62percent of voters believe Ghana is heading in the wrong direction. This sentiment is strongest among NDC voters (88percent ), floating voters (74percent ), and supporters of other parties (76percent ). In contrast, 64percent of NPP voters believe the country is on the right track.

President Nana Akufo-Addo’s job performance approval stands at 36percent, with 59percent disapproving. The government’s overall performance is rated as poor or very poor by 49percent of voters, while 30percent rate it as good or very good.

As the December elections approach, Mahama’s lead in key regions and among crucial voter demographics positions him as the front-runner, while Bawumia and the NPP face increasing challenges, particularly from independent candidates and voter dissatisfaction with the economy.

The poll by Outcomes International, on the other hand, shows that Dr Bawumia will garner 49.4percent of the votes while Mr Mahama will obtain 45.1percent of the votes. Less than 1 per cent (0.3percent) of the votes will be shared amongst the other presidential candidates while 5.2percent of votes are still undecided.

The research was conducted between August and September this year and interviewed thousands of registered voters across all the regions of the country.

“Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia will win in 11 out of 16 regions while Mahama will win in 5 regions. The overall findings show a very close contest between Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (49.4percent) and Mr. Mahama (45.1percent).

However, 5.2percent of the respondents were undecided while 0.3percent of the respondents said they would vote for other candidates,” the report said.

The post Bawumia, Mahama locked in close contest over 2024 elections appeared first on The Herald ghana.