Nume Ekeghe

Nigeria’s ambition of attaining a $1 trillion economy by 2030 is attainable but will hinge on bold policy choices and disciplined execution, analysts at Norrenbergerhave said.

In their H2 2025 Economic Outlook titled,“The Great Recalibration: From Shock to Calm,”stated that while recent currency depreciation has eroded Nigeria’s nominal gross domestic products (GDP)- now at $237.5 billion, Nigeria retains strong fundamentals, including its vast natural resources, youthful population, and large domestic market. 

The report argued that with annual nominal growth of at least 22 per centand exchange rate stability around N1,200/$, the country can reposition itself on a sustainable path to achieving its target.

It stated: “The Nigerian government has set a bold ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2030. However, as of 2024, the country’s nominal GDP (rebased figure) stands at approximately $237.5 billion, significantly lower than the $589.6 billion and $341.2 billion recorded in 2022 and 2023, respectively. This sharp decline, despite moderate growth in naira terms, is largely attributed to the significant depreciation of the local currency.

“With just five years left to meet the 2030 target, Nigeria’s current growth trajectory which averages around 4 per cent real and 15 per cent nominal annually, falls far short of the pace required. Our analysis suggests that to realistically attain a $1 trillion economy by 2030, Nigeria would need annual nominal growth of at least 22 per cent while also stabilising the exchange rate at or below N1,200/$. Achieving this ambitious goal will require more than just optimistic projections, it demands coordinated and transformative policy action, especially between the public and private sectors.”

Using Indonesia as a model, the report said Indonesia’s attainment of $1 trillion economy was driven by nearly 9 per cent annual growth over 25 years, anchored on reforms such as exchange rate stability, infrastructure investment, export diversification, and anti-corruption efforts. Indonesia’s experience, the report stressed, offers Nigeria a practical roadmap for achieving similar long-term resilience.

It observed: “In this regard, Indonesia offers a compelling model. Over the past 25 years, Indonesia transitioned from a volatile emerging economy into a $1 trillion market, averaging nearly 9 per cent growth annually. This success was underpinned by a range of targeted reforms and pragmatic policies that Nigeria could emulate.”

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