By Hammed Shittu in Ilorin

A major farming disaster has hit communities in Asa local government council area of Kwara State following the failure of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency’s (NiMet) 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), which thousands of farmers had relied upon for planting decisions.

A leading pro-democracy and civic advocacy group, Kwara Must Change (KMC) in Kwara state in a statement issued in Ilorin Wednesday described the forecast of the NiMet 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) as “a huge failure” with devastating consequences for food security, rural livelihoods, and farmer confidence.

NiMet’s 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction projected that rainfall in Asa would begin on May 7 and end on November 18, giving farmers nearly 195 days of rainfall to cultivate their crops. However, the reality was dramatically different.

After early showers in May, rainfall stopped abruptly in June, disappeared entirely in July, and recorded only two isolated instances in August.

Consistent rains only resumed in September, leaving a three month drought during the peak growing season.

This unprecedented rainfall pattern destroyed crops across Asa, wiping out the investments of farmers who had already spent heavily on land preparation, seedlings, and fertilizers.

Many are now counting their losses in what they describe as “the worst season in living memory.”

However, KMC which monitors governance and social development in Kwara, expressed alarm at the scale of devastation, accusing NiMet of undermining the very farmers it was meant to support.

According to KMC Convener, Mr. Abdulrazaq Hamzat in a statement, “the forecasting failure goes beyond scientific error and borders on policy negligence.

“NiMet’s failure to capture the critical three month cessation of rain between June and August is not just a technical oversight but a disaster of national importance. Agriculture is the lifeline of Kwara’s rural economy, and when institutions fail at such a critical point, the consequences are far-reaching”.

The group has demanded an urgent explanation from both NiMet and the Federal Government, insisting that farmers deserve accountability and corrective measures to prevent a repeat of the crisis.

KMC also called on the Kwara State Government to provide immediate relief packages for affected farmers in Asa, warning that food shortages and worsening poverty could result if support is delayed.

In addition, Kwara Must Change advocated the establishment of localized weather monitoring systems across the state to complement national forecasts, arguing that grassroots data could improve reliability and restore farmer confidence.

“This is a wake up call. If national forecasts continue to fail, farmers will either abandon them or abandon farming altogether. Both outcomes are disastrous for our economy and food security,” KMC warned.

As Kwara farmers struggle to recover, agricultural experts are also questioning whether Nigeria’s climate forecasting system is adequately equipped to handle the fast changing realities of climate variability, especially in rain fed farming communities.

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