The Men Who Could Face President Tinubu

Olawale Olaleye and Ejiofor Alike

The battle for the 2027 presidency has begun to build up, albeit with fluid permutations as some of the presidential hopefuls in the National Opposition Coalition Group, led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, are still pondering the options before them.

While President Bola Tinubu is potentially the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), in view of the gale of endorsements of his candidacy, the opposition coalition is yet to perfect crucial decisions to boost their chances in the election, except the June 19 application to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), seeking for the registration of a new political party—the All Democratic Alliance (ADA).

The ruling APC had endorsed President Tinubu for another term of four years, after governors of the party led by the Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, had earlier adopted and endorsed him as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election.

Following this was a coterie of endorsements by several private individuals and opposition figures, after citing his many bold reforms.

On the part of the opposition seeking to upstage Tinubu and the APC in the 2027 elections, a lot is yet to be done.

However, it had resolved to form a new party instead of flying the flag of an existing one to prosecute the 2027 presidential election battle.

But the other elephant in the room of the opposition is the decision on whether to zone the presidential ticket to the south, which is in sync with the mood of the nation.

Directly connected to this is whether to zone the ticket to the north for a balance of the geo-political zones in the election.

However, this option is against the mood of the nation after the eight years of Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner.

While this internal extrapolations by the coalition subsisted, some members of the opposition have either begun to show interest in the presidency or are being considered by other members of the larger group.

Although they are a blend of the southern and northern aspirants, some of them are directly pushing their aspiration, while some are being goaded on by their compatriots. At the same time, some are still dilly-dallying on whether to run or not.

Below are some of the names that are being considered head-to-head with Tinubu, and how they stand in the subsisting equation, which is yet to fully take off.

Goodluck Jonathan – The Relunctant Candidate

The popularity rating of former President Goodluck Jonathan has soared since he was defeated by Buhari in 2015 due to certain factors.

First was the manner in which he relinquished power without a fight. This endeared him to the international community especially. Two, he had undertaken many regional and global assignments, which he discharged very well.

Three, there is the factor of the better living conditions that Nigerians experienced during his tenure, which is being used as a parallel today. The condition then was one of the things canvassed against him by the opposition.

Jonathan is being urged to challenge Tinubu and return to office. This calculation is based on the fact that he is the only southerner constitutionally bound to run for just a term of four years.

It is, therefore, believed that the north may back him more than any other person for this singular reason. Indeed, many people had met him over this, but he has refused to give any concrete answer.

However, the recent statement by his wife, Patience Jonathan, that her husband would not contest against Tinubu might have damaged that option.
But he is one aspirant that could give Tinubu a really tough time if he indicates interest to run.

Atiku Abubakar – Waiting for the Marabout

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, has earned the moniker as Nigeria’s veteran presidential election contestant. He has contested unsuccessfully for the President of Nigeria at six different election cycles: 1993, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023.

Atiku’s closest chance to become president was in 2019 and 2023. He came to a close second in 2023 with a total of 6,984,520 votes behind the incumbent President Tinubu, who scored 8,794,726 votes, the lowest in contemporary history that any president ever polled.

But there are forces in the opposition coalition, who feel that Atiku has had his time and that others have served him long enough. His ambition to be president is largely believed to be responsible for the crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Many of the governors and other stakeholders do not want to work hard to put the party in shape, only for Atiku to come and ‘grab’ the ticket again.

Besides, a majority of them still believe in the zoning principle and therefore hold the view that power must remain in the south, a decision that is evidently counter to Atiku’s interest.

Peter Obi – Hopeful Candidate

A two-term former governor of Anambra State, Mr. Peter Obi, took the political scene by storm when he contested alongside President Bola Tinubu and Atiku in 2023. He, however, came third with a total of 6,101,533 votes on the platform of the Labour Party (LP). He was closer to Atiku than he was to Tinubu in that election.

Obi, though enjoyed goodwill and mass appeal from the youth population, who constitute a good percentage of the voting population, his presidential voyage was considered a misadventure by many of the political strategists, who still believed that had he waited behind to work with Atiku, the Emi lo kan catchphrase would have remained a dream.

The South-east is a known PDP stronghold and has never produced a president since 1999. But by coming out in 2023 to vie for the presidency from that part of the country, Obi secured the home zone advantage, which depleted Atiku’s votes and consequently handed Tinubu victory.

Obi is believed to be back in the race but it is not clear if he still enjoys the same goodwill as he did in 2023 among the youths. It is also not certain if the north would support any southerner who is constitutionally entitled to two terms of eight years after Tinubu’s four years.

Bukola Saraki – On the Sidelines

A former Senate President, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki, is a formidable force in Kwara State, and two-term governor of the state.

With a good knowledge of national politics, Saraki, who had also been the Chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum, contested the May 2022 presidential primary of the PDP and came third after Atiku Abubakar and Nyesom Wike.

In spite of losing Kwara State to the APC in the 2019 elections, Saraki has remained a popular figure, both in Kwara and national politics.
Unfortunately, the part of the country he hails from has always been a disadvantage of sort.

While the core north does not think North-central where Saraki hails from, should be considered for presidency if the position is zoned to the North, the south, even though he boasts a Yoruba name, neither thinks he belongs to it.

In the current extrapolation, however, a Saraki, with one leg in the north and the other in the south, appears a typical compromise candidate in the event of a stalemate.

However, he has not indicated interest to run in 2027.

But it would take more than such surface-scratching analysis to take on a Tinubu. Though Saraki is capable in terms of strategy, capacity and ability to think on his feet, the subsisting political equation seems to be against him.

Rabiu Kwankwaso – Challenger from Kano

A former Minister of Defence and two-term governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso, is unable to unsettle any serious political applecart in any part of the country beyond Kano.

Though he has established himself as the political leader of Kano State with grassroots support, his control of the state is currently shaky.
Kwankwaso, leader of Kwankwasiyya, a grassroots political movement, which recently attracted membership of 24 retired military officers of Kano origin, has always had an eye on the presidency.

He contested the 2023 presidential election on the platform of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and came a distant fourth with 1,496,687 votes.
As it is, his political future is unknown due to the leadership crisis rocking his party, the NNPP, and the fact that he has not identified with the opposition coalition.

 He is the least of Tinubu’s problems, though Kano is crucial to any presidential race. The president’s men are believed to be containing Kwankwaso in Kano.

Chibuike Amaechi  –  Table Shaker

One of the politicians who has served the longest in Nigeria’s history is Rotimi Amaechi. A former speaker of Rivers State House of Assembly, two-term governor of Rivers State and former Minister of Transportation for eight years, Amaechi comes to the race with requisite experience.

Many of those he trained and who rose through him are currently doing well in various political spaces and in personal capacities. This includes the current Minister of the FCT, Nyesom Wike, a man he nursed from his political cradle to stardom.

 
Amaechi contested the June 2022 presidential primary of the APC and came a distant second with 316 votes, trailing behind Tinubu, who garnered 1,271 votes to emerge the winner.

Amaechi defeated 11 other aspirants, including former Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo. He is one of the few men with courage, who has on a few occasions, criticised the Tinubu administration for the hardship it has brought on the Nigerian people. He also stood against his declaration of emergency rule in his state, Rivers, describing it as unconstitutional.

Amaechi’s presidential dream is no longer in the closet. It is also why he has been part of the coalition talks. Like other potential choices from the South, it is not certain if the North will support another southerner being in office for eight years after Tinubu’s four years.

Although his allies are saying Amaechi is so credible that if he had an understanding to serve for four years, he would never renege on his honour. But that is still not enough. Will the North ever trust anyone again after Jonathan allegedly reneged on a similar agreement? 

Nasir El-Rufai – Disruptor

Former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and ex-Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, is among the strong members of the opposition coalition seeking to unseat President Tinubu in 2027.

Though he has not in any way indicated interest in the 2027 presidential election, he is ready to provide support to unseat Tinubu. Many, however, believed that El-Rufai is still nursing an ambition to pair with a southern candidate, knowing that such a running mate may ultimately inherit the presidency afterwards.

El-Rufai’s grievances against the president stemmed from the Senate’s refusal to confirm him as minister allegedly on the ‘order from above’.

Unable to take the pain and the embarrassment the refusal to clear him had caused his person, he has remained unconsolable and determined to take revenge against Tinubu and the APC in 2027.

 However, the killings in southern Kaduna when he was governor diminished his political fortunes.

Ibrahim Shekarau – Calm before the Storm

Another two-term former governor of Kano State, Ibrahim Shekarau, is a major force in Kano politics.

A former Minister of Education, he is the Chairman of the League of Northern Democrats (LND), a political movement established by a coalition of northern elites interfacing with the opposition coalition on the 2027 talks.

Although Shekarau has not indicated interest in the presidency, he is one of the northern forces who had vowed to send Tinubu back to Lagos in 2027.

However, like Kwankwaso, Shekarau does not seem to constitute any threat to Tinubu, as the mood of the nation favours the presidency remaining in the South in 2027.

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